Bitcoin Up or Down on November 1?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Up (60%) · Up at 54¢ · $690 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Up
5
Up 60%
$690.38
$36.84
52.8¢ → 54¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO Tokor | Upavg 52¢ | $485.55 | $513.69 | +$28.14 | 63% 784-463 (1247) |
19 196874353278 | Upavg 56.1¢ | $118.02 | $116.64 | -$1.38 | 44% 189-244 (433) |
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100 | Downavg 42.6¢ | $45.75 | $55.36 | +$9.61 | 59% 877-611 (1488) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $3.47 | $3.65 | +$0.26 | 59% 22632-16005 (38637) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR<$100 | Downavg 41¢ | $0.82 | $1.03 | +$0.21 | 59% 1064-740 (1804) |
Invested
$485.55
Value
$513.69
PnL
+$28.14
Record
63%
784-463 (1247)
Invested
$118.02
Value
$116.64
PnL
-$1.38
Record
44%
189-244 (433)
Invested
$45.75
Value
$55.36
PnL
+$9.61
Record
59%
877-611 (1488)
Invested
$3.47
Value
$3.65
PnL
+$0.26
Record
59%
22632-16005 (38637)
Invested
$0.82
Value
$1.03
PnL
+$0.21
Record
59%
1064-740 (1804)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.