Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (57%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bitcoin Up or Down on October 31?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Up (60%) · Up at 43¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31

Up43¢Down57¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$11.1

Smart Money Entry

52.7¢ → 42.5¢

-19% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Down 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up43%

Down57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$667.18

Total Shares1,295

Combined PnL-$15.63

Down2 traders

Total Value$38.4

Total Shares79

Combined PnL+$4.53

Up — 60%Down — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$674.39	$655.25	-$19.15	65% 2397-1278 (3675)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$442	$402.22	-$39.78
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.1¢	$232.4	$253.03	+$20.63
19 196874353278CTR	Upavg 52.3¢	$532.1	$523.57	-$8.53	43% 170-221 (391)
0X 0xDB5CTR	Upavg 54¢	$263.52	$105.06	-$5.1	59% 2192-1542 (3734)
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100	Upavg 54.2¢	$40.55	$38.54	-$2	59% 862-600 (1462)
AN Anon455<$100	Downavg 42.6¢	$31.62	$35.97	+$4.35	56% 2856-2282 (5138)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Downavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.43	+$0.17	59% 22313-15676 (37989)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100

Invested

$674.39

Value

$655.25

PnL

-$19.15

Record

65%

2397-1278 (3675)

Both legs:

Up$44250¢-$39.78

Down$232.450.1¢+$20.63

196874353278CTR

Invested

$532.1

Value

$523.57

PnL

-$8.53

Record

43%

170-221 (391)

0xDB5CTR

Invested

$263.52

Value

$105.06

PnL

-$5.1

Record

59%

2192-1542 (3734)

gobblewobbleCTR<$100

Invested

$40.55

Value

$38.54

PnL

-$2

Record

59%

862-600 (1462)

Anon455<$100

Down

Invested

$31.62

Value

$35.97

PnL

+$4.35

Record

56%

2856-2282 (5138)

rabadabadoo<$100

Down

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.43

PnL

+$0.17

Record

59%

22313-15676 (37989)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 43%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Down 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.2%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$121.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

221.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.