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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 8PM ET
Resolved Up. 52.94489763061687% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
11
Down 52.94489763061687%
Total Value
$6.3K
Combined PnL
$0
Smart Money Signal
Down
6 of 11 top traders (52.94489763061687%)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xa17dfc9d...44597f
Slug
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-2026-8pm-et