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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 10PM ET
Resolved Down. 100% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
10
Up 100%
Total Value
$6.5K
Combined PnL
$0
Smart Money Signal
Up
10 of 10 top traders (100%)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x6c61fdbf...752cf9
Slug
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-2026-10pm-et