Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4PM ET

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Up (57%) · Up at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 4

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$20.56

Smart Money Entry

72.6¢ → 100¢

+38% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,056

Combined PnL+$31.48

Down3 traders

Total Value$128.64

Total Shares302

Combined PnL-$10.92

Up — 57%Down — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 68¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$159.99	67% 101418-49729 (151147)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$203.62
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.2¢	$801.67	$438.06	-$363.61
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 61.3¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$157.77	63% 60080-34581 (94661)
AL almach	Upavg 94¢	$820.37	$710.96	-$109.41	55% 49754-41295 (91049)
BO bosona	Upavg 71¢	$606.23	$642.73	+$36.5	55% 51208-41558 (92766)
MO mo-money	Upavg 71.5¢	$474.36	$420.98	-$53.38	55% 51846-42287 (94133)
PB PBot-6CTR	Downavg 46.2¢	$101.53	$109.9	+$8.37	58% 51767-37809 (89576)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 30.1¢	$36.58	$16.49	-$20.09	51% 9628-9201 (18829)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 14.5¢	$1.45	$2.25	+$0.8	48% 9817-10738 (20555)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$2,263.13

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$159.99

Record

67%

101418-49729 (151147)

Both legs:

Up$1,461.4668¢+$203.62

Down$801.6741.2¢-$363.61

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$1,057.36

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$157.77

Record

63%

60080-34581 (94661)

almach

Invested

$820.37

Value

$710.96

PnL

-$109.41

Record

55%

49754-41295 (91049)

bosona

Invested

$606.23

Value

$642.73

PnL

+$36.5

Record

55%

51208-41558 (92766)

mo-money

Invested

$474.36

Value

$420.98

PnL

-$53.38

Record

55%

51846-42287 (94133)

PBot-6CTR

Down

Invested

$101.53

Value

$109.9

PnL

+$8.37

Record

58%

51767-37809 (89576)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$36.58

Value

$16.49

PnL

-$20.09

Record

51%

9628-9201 (18829)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.45

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.8

Record

48%

9817-10738 (20555)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.