Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 3PM ET

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Up (55%) · Up at 100¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 4

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 55%

Total Value

$10.5K

Combined PnL

$2.2K

Smart Money Entry

65.6¢ → 100¢

+52% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares7,644

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Down5 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares6,640

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Up — 55%Down — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 69.4¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$147.55	67% 101418-49729 (151147)
BI bibana100CTR	Downavg 32.4¢	$2.1K	$3.2K	+$1.1K	50% 13-13 (26)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 57.1¢	$1.4K	$2.4K	+$969.27	63% 60080-34581 (94661)
MO mo-money	Upavg 70.4¢	$406.59	$479.34	+$72.75	55% 51846-42287 (94133)
AL almach	Upavg 68.9¢	$311.19	$225.67	-$85.53	55% 49754-41295 (91049)
BO bosona	Upavg 68.1¢	$206.7	$151.85	-$54.85	55% 51208-41558 (92766)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Downavg 48.1¢	$94.42	$98.22	+$3.8	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 79.8¢	$94.32	$75.03	-$19.3	51% 9628-9201 (18829)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 50.7¢	$10.66	$10.5	-$0.16	58% 62307-45673 (107980)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 34.9¢	$16.26	$10.01	-$6.26	48% 9817-10738 (20555)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$2.55	$2.55	+$0	58% 51767-37809 (89576)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$3,659.83

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$147.55

Record

67%

101418-49729 (151147)

bibana100CTR

Down

Invested

$2,069.61

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

50%

13-13 (26)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$1,429.1

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$969.27

Record

63%

60080-34581 (94661)

mo-money

Invested

$406.59

Value

$479.34

PnL

+$72.75

Record

55%

51846-42287 (94133)

almach

Invested

$311.19

Value

$225.67

PnL

-$85.53

Record

55%

49754-41295 (91049)

bosona

Invested

$206.7

Value

$151.85

PnL

-$54.85

Record

55%

51208-41558 (92766)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$94.42

Value

$98.22

PnL

+$3.8

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$94.32

Value

$75.03

PnL

-$19.3

Record

51%

9628-9201 (18829)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.66

Value

$10.5

PnL

-$0.16

Record

58%

62307-45673 (107980)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.26

Value

$10.01

PnL

-$6.26

Record

48%

9817-10738 (20555)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

51767-37809 (89576)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.