Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 1PM ET
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (80%) · Down at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Down
5
Down 80%
$4.4K
-$102.84
56.6¢ → 100¢
+76% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 56.7¢ | $3.9K | $3.6K | -$261.33 | 67% 101397-49715 (151112) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 46.5¢ | $591.43 | $733.76 | +$142.33 | 63% 60059-34551 (94610) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $41.91 | $58.99 | +$17.08 | 51% 9592-9177 (18769) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 53.7¢ | $12.9 | $12 | -$0.9 | 58% 62279-45653 (107932) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $1.04 | $1.02 | -$0.02 | 58% 51757-37804 (89561) |
Invested
$3,875.66
Value
$3.6K
PnL
-$261.33
Record
67%
101397-49715 (151112)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$591.43
Value
$733.76
PnL
+$142.33
Record
63%
60059-34551 (94610)
Invested
$41.91
Value
$58.99
PnL
+$17.08
Record
51%
9592-9177 (18769)
Invested
$12.9
Value
$12
PnL
-$0.9
Record
58%
62279-45653 (107932)
Invested
$1.04
Value
$1.02
PnL
-$0.02
Record
58%
51757-37804 (89561)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.