Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 3PM ET

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (89%) · Down at 89¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 2

Up12¢Down88¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 89%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.4K

Combined PnL

$384.96

Smart Money Entry

58.8¢ → 88.5¢

+50% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 9 top traders (89%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up12%

Down89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares6,053

Combined PnL+$447.33

Up1 trader

Total Value$34.65

Total Shares154

Combined PnL-$62.37

Down — 89%Up — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bibana100ARB<$100	Upavg 27.6¢	$4.2K	$5.1K	+$910.37	— 8-10 (18)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.8¢	$2.0K	$3.9K	+$1.9K
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.6¢	$2.2K	$1.2K	-$959.51
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 66.2¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$93.84	64% 59267-33814 (93081)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 63.3¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$62.84	57% 6839-5078 (11917)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Upavg 49.5¢	$1.8K	$1.3K	-$477.38	12% 18374-133387 (151761)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69¢	$814.37	$997.09	+$182.72
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.5¢	$961.07	$300.97	-$660.1
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 45.3¢	$368.67	$557.7	+$189.03	58% 38832-27877 (66709)
38 38791873984189	Downavg 45.6¢	$368.96	$392.18	+$23.22	47% 13102-14675 (27777)
DU Dubaiitaly	Downavg 41.1¢	$200	$103.3	+$68	48% 185-197 (382)
BE beeemw<$100	Downavg 79¢	$64.64	$61.78	-$2.86	78% 324-92 (416)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 54.5¢	$44.61	$57.65	+$13.04	52% 8908-8344 (17252)
19 196874353278CTR<$100	Upavg 63¢	$97.02	$34.65	-$62.37	43% 249-328 (577)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.43	+$0.22	48% 9346-10229 (19575)

bibana100ARB<$100

Invested

$4,197.65

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$910.37

Record

—

8-10 (18)

Both legs:

Down$2,008.6543.8¢+$1.9K

Up$2,18927.6¢-$959.51

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$1,995.66

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$93.84

Record

64%

59267-33814 (93081)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$1,665.4

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$62.84

Record

57%

6839-5078 (11917)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Invested

$1,775.44

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$477.38

Record

12%

18374-133387 (151761)

Both legs:

Down$814.3769¢+$182.72

Up$961.0749.5¢-$660.1

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$368.67

Value

$557.7

PnL

+$189.03

Record

58%

38832-27877 (66709)

38791873984189

Down

Invested

$368.96

Value

$392.18

PnL

+$23.22

Record

47%

13102-14675 (27777)

Dubaiitaly

Down

Invested

$200

Value

$103.3

PnL

+$68

Record

48%

185-197 (382)

beeemw<$100

Down

Invested

$64.64

Value

$61.78

PnL

-$2.86

Record

78%

324-92 (416)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$44.61

Value

$57.65

PnL

+$13.04

Record

52%

8908-8344 (17252)

196874353278CTR<$100

Invested

$97.02

Value

$34.65

PnL

-$62.37

Record

43%

249-328 (577)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.43

PnL

+$0.22

Record

48%

9346-10229 (19575)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 9 top traders (89%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.2%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.