Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2PM ET

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Down (73%) · Down at 95¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 2

Up6¢Down94¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 73%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$80.96

Smart Money Entry

60.5¢ → 94.5¢

+56% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up6%

Down95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares4,335

Combined PnL+$194.46

Up3 traders

Total Value$237.88

Total Shares1,712

Combined PnL-$275.42

Down — 73%Up — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 73¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$38.26	64% 59267-33814 (93081)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 67.8¢	$907.2	$979.05	+$71.85	57% 6839-5078 (11917)
38 38791873984189	Downavg 45.5¢	$454.6	$465	+$10.4	47% 13102-14675 (27777)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 43.6¢	$222.35	$237.32	+$14.97	58% 38832-27877 (66709)
AN Anon455	Downavg 81.7¢	$192.37	$206.11	+$13.74	55% 3168-2584 (5752)
TM tmsd-testCTR	Upavg 29.1¢	$457.46	$164.94	-$292.52	54% 14649-12519 (27168)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 42.9¢	$85.59	$92.86	+$7.27	58% 51529-37594 (89123)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 52.4¢	$53.17	$78.14	+$24.97	48% 9346-10229 (19575)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 61.4¢	$42.73	$55.73	+$13	52% 8908-8344 (17252)
19 196874353278CTR<$100	Upavg 34¢	$25.84	$40.66	+$14.82	43% 249-328 (577)
DU DubaiitalyCTR<$100	Upavg 46¢	$30	$32.28	+$2.28	48% 185-197 (382)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$1,192.01

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$38.26

Record

64%

59267-33814 (93081)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$907.2

Value

$979.05

PnL

+$71.85

Record

57%

6839-5078 (11917)

38791873984189

Down

Invested

$454.6

Value

$465

PnL

+$10.4

Record

47%

13102-14675 (27777)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$222.35

Value

$237.32

PnL

+$14.97

Record

58%

38832-27877 (66709)

Anon455

Down

Invested

$192.37

Value

$206.11

PnL

+$13.74

Record

55%

3168-2584 (5752)

tmsd-testCTR

Invested

$457.46

Value

$164.94

PnL

-$292.52

Record

54%

14649-12519 (27168)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$85.59

Value

$92.86

PnL

+$7.27

Record

58%

51529-37594 (89123)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$53.17

Value

$78.14

PnL

+$24.97

Record

48%

9346-10229 (19575)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$42.73

Value

$55.73

PnL

+$13

Record

52%

8908-8344 (17252)

196874353278CTR<$100

Invested

$25.84

Value

$40.66

PnL

+$14.82

Record

43%

249-328 (577)

DubaiitalyCTR<$100

Invested

$30

Value

$32.28

PnL

+$2.28

Record

48%

185-197 (382)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.8%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.