Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 1PM ET

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Down (73%) · Down at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 2

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 73%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$191.99

Smart Money Entry

53.2¢ → 100¢

+88% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,434

Combined PnL+$151.17

Up3 traders

Total Value$259.41

Total Shares698

Combined PnL+$40.82

Down — 73%Up — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 56.8¢	$629.94	$658.48	+$28.54	64% 59154-33700 (92854)
38 38791873984189	Downavg 46.6¢	$548.79	$559.7	+$10.9	47% 13073-14657 (27730)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 63.6¢	$269.91	$376.95	+$107.03	57% 6833-5074 (11907)
19 196874353278CTR	Upavg 35.4¢	$96.06	$142.61	+$46.55	43% 242-317 (559)
HS HsilverbasherCTR	Upavg 32.4¢	$110.92	$85.58	-$25.35	12% 18371-133367 (151738)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 59.1¢	$32.49	$43.94	+$11.45	52% 8878-8327 (17205)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 45¢	$39.57	$41.77	+$2.2	58% 51524-37587 (89111)
DU DubaiitalyCTR<$100	Upavg 33¢	$47.62	$31.22	+$19.61	49% 185-196 (381)
AN Anon455<$100	Downavg 72.5¢	$40.86	$26.76	-$14.1	55% 3165-2582 (5747)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 73.9¢	$18.05	$22.83	+$4.78	55% 51220-41749 (92969)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 90.2¢	$10.02	$10.38	+$0.37	55% 50521-40626 (91147)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$629.94

Value

$658.48

PnL

+$28.54

Record

64%

59154-33700 (92854)

38791873984189

Down

Invested

$548.79

Value

$559.7

PnL

+$10.9

Record

47%

13073-14657 (27730)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$269.91

Value

$376.95

PnL

+$107.03

Record

57%

6833-5074 (11907)

196874353278CTR

Invested

$96.06

Value

$142.61

PnL

+$46.55

Record

43%

242-317 (559)

HsilverbasherCTR

Invested

$110.92

Value

$85.58

PnL

-$25.35

Record

12%

18371-133367 (151738)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$32.49

Value

$43.94

PnL

+$11.45

Record

52%

8878-8327 (17205)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$39.57

Value

$41.77

PnL

+$2.2

Record

58%

51524-37587 (89111)

DubaiitalyCTR<$100

Invested

$47.62

Value

$31.22

PnL

+$19.61

Record

49%

185-196 (381)

Anon455<$100

Down

Invested

$40.86

Value

$26.76

PnL

-$14.1

Record

55%

3165-2582 (5747)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$18.05

Value

$22.83

PnL

+$4.78

Record

55%

51220-41749 (92969)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$10.02

Value

$10.38

PnL

+$0.37

Record

55%

50521-40626 (91147)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.