Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 9AM ET

15 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Down (75%) · Down at 100¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.2K

Combined PnL

$3.7K

Smart Money Entry

59.1¢ → 99.5¢

+68% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 20 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$14.4K

Total Shares15,949

Combined PnL+$4.1K

Up5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,533

Combined PnL-$384.83

Down — 75%Up — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 60¢	$2.3K	$3.7K	+$1.4K	53% 1336-1195 (2531)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 68.2¢	$3.0K	$3.4K	+$438.6	51% 1741-1694 (3435)
AL almach	Downavg 56.8¢	$799.5	$1.4K	+$560.63	48% 784-859 (1643)
BO bosona	Downavg 58.7¢	$806.72	$1.3K	+$523.06	50% 4018-3992 (8010)
MO mo-money	Downavg 56.6¢	$791.72	$1.2K	+$454.39	47% 787-874 (1661)
AN Anon455	Downavg 55.5¢	$561.87	$1.0K	+$444.7	49% 286-302 (588)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 67.7¢	$747.27	$904.62	+$157.35	49% 600-626 (1226)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
38 38791873984189	Downavg 45¢	$454.15	$449.37	-$4.78	48% 2153-2339 (4492)
FI fiankee	Downavg 50¢	$370	$366.3	-$3.7	38% 8-13 (21)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 43.9¢	$265.96	$269.37	+$3.41	51% 422-410 (832)
SU suntoriCTR	Upavg 50.3¢	$527.99	$204.61	-$323.38	47% 1547-1731 (3278)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Downavg 77.8¢	$198.89	$199.58	+$0.69	51% 226-217 (443)
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.8¢	$146.89	$155.83	+$8.94
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.8¢	$52	$43.75	-$8.25
KA KARIZMATIKUCTR	Upavg 54¢	$187	$174.87	-$12.13	9% 14-143 (157)
DE devonpollARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$180	$172.91	+$2.59	53% 304-271 (575)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$90	$123.3	+$33.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$78.75	$49.61	-$30.71
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 43¢	$126.85	$131.28	+$4.43	48% 1139-1229 (2368)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 94¢	$1.3K	$112.62	+$88.66	47% 908-1031 (1939)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 59.7¢	$74.06	$73.96	+$13.86	60% 2327-1560 (3887)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 51.4¢	$35.95	$45.15	+$9.2	47% 870-993 (1863)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 59.3¢	$24.04	$22.63	+$11.56	54% 1521-1314 (2835)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Upavg 36.4¢	$50	$0.69	-$49.31	27% 158-429 (587)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$2,326.56

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

53%

1336-1195 (2531)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$2,992.77

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$438.6

Record

51%

1741-1694 (3435)

almach

Down

Invested

$799.5

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$560.63

Record

48%

784-859 (1643)

bosona

Down

Invested

$806.72

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$523.06

Record

50%

4018-3992 (8010)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$791.72

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$454.39

Record

47%

787-874 (1661)

Anon455

Down

Invested

$561.87

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$444.7

Record

49%

286-302 (588)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$747.27

Value

$904.62

PnL

+$157.35

Record

49%

600-626 (1226)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

38791873984189

Down

Invested

$454.15

Value

$449.37

PnL

-$4.78

Record

48%

2153-2339 (4492)

fiankee

Down

Invested

$370

Value

$366.3

PnL

-$3.7

Record

38%

8-13 (21)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$265.96

Value

$269.37

PnL

+$3.41

Record

51%

422-410 (832)

suntoriCTR

Invested

$527.99

Value

$204.61

PnL

-$323.38

Record

47%

1547-1731 (3278)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Down

Invested

$198.89

Value

$199.58

PnL

+$0.69

Record

51%

226-217 (443)

Both legs:

Down$146.8977.8¢+$8.94

Up$5220.8¢-$8.25

KARIZMATIKUCTR

Invested

$187

Value

$174.87

PnL

-$12.13

Record

14-143 (157)

devonpollARB<$100

Down

Invested

$180

Value

$172.91

PnL

+$2.59

Record

53%

304-271 (575)

Both legs:

Down$9050¢+$33.3

Up$78.7550¢-$30.71

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$126.85

Value

$131.28

PnL

+$4.43

Record

48%

1139-1229 (2368)

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$1,288.05

Value

$112.62

PnL

+$88.66

Record

47%

908-1031 (1939)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$74.06

Value

$73.96

PnL

+$13.86

Record

60%

2327-1560 (3887)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$35.95

Value

$45.15

PnL

+$9.2

Record

47%

870-993 (1863)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$24.04

Value

$22.63

PnL

+$11.56

Record

54%

1521-1314 (2835)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Invested

$50

Value

$0.69

PnL

-$49.31

Record

27%

158-429 (587)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 20 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.