Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on November 9?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 99¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$6.0K
$87.23
62.5¢ → 99.3¢
+59% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 97.6¢ | $3.7K | $3.8K | +$64.63 | 65% 3106-1654 (4760) |
E4 e46m3 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $2.01 | $2.2K | +$22.74 | 66% 27658-13968 (41626) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Yesavg 98.5¢ | $19.78 | $19.85 | +$0.08 | 49% 10704-11355 (22059) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 98¢ | $5 | $5.06 | +$0.06 | 35% 19620-37183 (56803) |
19 196874353278CTR<$100 | Noavg 1.6¢ | $0.51 | $0.24 | -$0.27 | 41% 371-536 (907) |
Invested
$3,747.36
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$64.63
Record
65%
3106-1654 (4760)
Invested
$2.01
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$22.74
Record
66%
27658-13968 (41626)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$19.78
Value
$19.85
PnL
+$0.08
Record
49%
10704-11355 (22059)
Invested
$5
Value
$5.06
PnL
+$0.06
Record
35%
19620-37183 (56803)
Invested
$0.51
Value
$0.24
PnL
-$0.27
Record
41%
371-536 (907)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.