Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on November 7?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 100¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$7.1K
$138.67
97.6¢ → 100¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
104h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 97.7¢ | $6.3K | $6.4K | +$144.2 | 65% 3106-1654 (4760) |
E4 e46m3 | Yesavg 95¢ | $265.68 | $270.26 | +$4.59 | 66% 27658-13968 (41626) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Yesavg 97.8¢ | $248.55 | $236.97 | -$11.58 | 60% 1466-967 (2433) |
SH Sharky6999 | Yesavg 99.2¢ | $193.44 | $194.9 | +$1.46 | 98% 7665-185 (7850) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Yesavg 98.7¢ | $5 | $5 | -$0 | 49% 10704-11355 (22059) |
Invested
$6,261.68
Value
$6.4K
PnL
+$144.2
Record
65%
3106-1654 (4760)
Invested
$265.68
Value
$270.26
PnL
+$4.59
Record
66%
27658-13968 (41626)
Invested
$248.55
Value
$236.97
PnL
-$11.58
Record
60%
1466-967 (2433)
Invested
$193.44
Value
$194.9
PnL
+$1.46
Record
98%
7665-185 (7850)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
10704-11355 (22059)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.