Will St. Truidense VV win on 2026-11-08?
4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 100¢ · $24K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
10
Yes 40%
$23.6K
$791.03
59.3¢ → 100¢
+69% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 61¢ | $15.0K | $11.6K | +$2.5K | 50% 23449-23463 (46912) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 41¢ | $8.6K | $5.5K | $-3.1K | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34 | Yesavg 55¢ | $3.8K | $5.3K | +$1.5K | 47% 215-246 (461) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 40.1¢ | $821.32 | $810.54 | -$10.77 | 50% 32547-32694 (65241) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 41¢ | $219.06 | $216.06 | -$3 | 59% 52363-37089 (89452) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Noavg 39¢ | $156 | $90 | -$66 | 56% 8753-6943 (15696) |
 dips.<$100 | Yesavg 97¢ | $75.66 | $77.96 | +$2.3 | 46% 12092-14003 (26095) |
PV pvc975<$100 | Yesavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 | 98% 20177-401 (20578) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $17.17 | $3.86 | -$2.83 | 52% 1527-1404 (2931) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Noavg 23¢ | $57.96 | $1.26 | -$56.7 | 53% 70182-61748 (131930) |
Invested
$14,985.72
Value
$11.6K
PnL
+$2.5K
Record
50%
23449-23463 (46912)
Invested
$8,597.3
Value
$5.5K
PnL
$-3.1K
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
Invested
$3,764.22
Value
$5.3K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
47%
215-246 (461)
Invested
$821.32
Value
$810.54
PnL
-$10.77
Record
50%
32547-32694 (65241)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$219.06
Value
$216.06
PnL
-$3
Record
59%
52363-37089 (89452)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$156
Value
$90
PnL
-$66
Record
56%
8753-6943 (15696)
dips.<$100Invested
$75.66
Value
$77.96
PnL
+$2.3
Record
46%
12092-14003 (26095)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0
Record
98%
20177-401 (20578)
Invested
$17.17
Value
$3.86
PnL
-$2.83
Record
52%
1527-1404 (2931)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$57.96
Value
$1.26
PnL
-$56.7
Record
53%
70182-61748 (131930)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.