Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

KV Kortrijk vs. Yellow-Red KV Mechelen: O/U 2.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 49¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 4

Over49¢Under51¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$4.13

Smart Money Entry

50.8¢ → 48.5¢

-4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,894

Combined PnL+$8.25

Under3 traders

Total Value$104.08

Total Shares228

Combined PnL-$4.12

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (4 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 48.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$6.08	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Overavg 53.6¢	$796.03	$794.16	-$1.87	50% 20734-20980 (41714)
rayvanmechelenCTR	Overavg 51.2¢	$105.06	$108.65	+$3.59	74% 2421-862 (3283)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Overavg 54¢	$192.19	$68.73	-$0.39	58% 45427-32914 (78341)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54¢	$35.14	$35.47	+$0.33
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.8¢	$34.91	$33.26	-$0.72
GA GamblingOdyssey<$100	Underavg 46¢	$38.75	$39.17	+$0.42	51% 903-853 (1756)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Underavg 49.6¢	$35.9	$32.6	-$3.3	58% 6498-4657 (11155)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 47.2¢	$33.54	$32.31	-$1.24	52% 1158-1077 (2235)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$14.43	$14.63	+$0.19	53% 60059-52427 (112486)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$9.23	$9.42	+$0.19	49% 14323-15001 (29324)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$7.44	$7.51	+$0.07	40% 1343-2035 (3378)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$1,109.91

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$6.08

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Over

Invested

$796.03

Value

$794.16

PnL

-$1.87

Record

50%

20734-20980 (41714)

rayvanmechelenCTR

Over

Invested

$105.06

Value

$108.65

PnL

+$3.59

Record

74%

2421-862 (3283)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$192.19

Value

$68.73

PnL

-$0.39

Record

58%

45427-32914 (78341)

Both legs:

Over$35.1454¢+$0.33

Under$34.9147.8¢-$0.72

GamblingOdyssey<$100

Under

Invested

$38.75

Value

$39.17

PnL

+$0.42

Record

51%

903-853 (1756)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Under

Invested

$35.9

Value

$32.6

PnL

-$3.3

Record

58%

6498-4657 (11155)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$33.54

Value

$32.31

PnL

-$1.24

Record

52%

1158-1077 (2235)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.43

Value

$14.63

PnL

+$0.19

Record

53%

60059-52427 (112486)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.23

Value

$9.42

PnL

+$0.19

Record

49%

14323-15001 (29324)

NM-PCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.44

Value

$7.51

PnL

+$0.07

Record

40%

1343-2035 (3378)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (4 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.