Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Yosuke Watanuki — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Yosuke Watanuki

Taipei: Coleman Wong vs Yosuke Watanuki

Resolved Yosuke Watanuki. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Yosuke Watanuki. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Yosuke Watanuki 59%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$126.2K

Combined PnL

$10.8K

Smart Money Signal

Yosuke Watanuki

17 of 31 top traders (55%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Coleman Wong0%

Yosuke Watanuki100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yosuke Watanuki17 traders

Total Value$118.2K

Total Shares118,216

Combined PnL+$25.9K

Coleman Wong14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares40,833

Combined PnL$-15.1K

Yosuke Watanuki — 55%Coleman Wong — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Yosuke Watanukiavg 74.2¢	$21.6K	$29.2K	+$7.5K	50% 1821-1809 (3630)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Yosuke Watanukiavg 56.5¢	$19.7K	$18.8K	-$737.65	42% 8117-11313 (19430)
VE Venusian	Yosuke Watanukiavg 72.2¢	$15.1K	$20.6K	+$5.6K	49% 1807-1885 (3692)
FL Flaznorp	Yosuke Watanukiavg 74.7¢	$7.3K	$9.6K	+$2.4K	51% 27041-25614 (52655)
RN1	Yosuke Watanukiavg 57.7¢	$6.7K	$11.6K	+$4.9K	53% 62265-54490 (116755)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Coleman Wongavg 30.1¢	$9.7K	$6.1K	$-3.6K	51% 4999-4865 (9864)
└ Yosuke Watanuki leg	Yosuke Watanukiavg 63.1¢	$3.8K	$6.1K	+$2.2K
└ Coleman Wong leg	Coleman Wongavg 30.1¢	$5.8K	—	$-5.8K
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Yosuke Watanukiavg 75.9¢	$8.0K	$10.6K	+$2.5K	53% 6325-5608 (11933)
LI LightParadox	Yosuke Watanukiavg 68.5¢	$6.4K	$8.7K	+$2.3K	49% 1765-1864 (3629)
KK KkunnCTR	Coleman Wongavg 26.3¢	$9.2K	—	$-2.3K	42% 253-343 (596)
38 38791873984189	Yosuke Watanukiavg 62.3¢	$5.0K	$2.8K	+$467.76	48% 62365-67229 (129594)
TRCM	Yosuke Watanukiavg 66.2¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$150.81	55% 4078-3288 (7366)
RE redvinnyCTR	Coleman Wongavg 67.1¢	$6.7K	—	$-6.7K	75% 1625-538 (2163)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Yosuke Watanukiavg 73¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$294.45	48% 1742-1871 (3613)
└ Yosuke Watanuki leg	Yosuke Watanukiavg 73¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$457.53
└ Coleman Wong leg	Coleman Wongavg 44.3¢	$751.98	—	-$751.98
0xheavy888	Yosuke Watanukiavg 45.5¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$769.73	56% 8212-6519 (14731)
VeryLucky888CTR	Coleman Wongavg 54¢	$2.5K	—	$-1.6K	58% 47459-34244 (81703)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Coleman Wongavg 56.2¢	$1.3K	—	$-1.3K	51% 2054-1984 (4038)
EU Eulhunter	Yosuke Watanukiavg 64.6¢	$615.08	$814.78	+$199.7	54% 6320-5389 (11709)
0X 0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893CTR	Coleman Wongavg 53.7¢	$781.75	—	-$781.75	39% 438-697 (1135)
TH thestingsnake	Yosuke Watanukiavg 68.2¢	$3.1K	$485.98	-$377.22	60% 4504-3004 (7508)
1L 1lovejump	Yosuke Watanukiavg 65.6¢	$873.53	$312.3	+$20.63	53% 825-731 (1556)
CI cigarettes	Yosuke Watanukiavg 75¢	$187.5	$250	+$62.5	53% 24313-21381 (45694)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Yosuke Watanukiavg 59.5¢	$191.93	$202.33	+$10.4	52% 14644-13309 (27953)
└ Yosuke Watanuki leg	Yosuke Watanukiavg 59.5¢	$120.41	$202.33	+$81.92
└ Coleman Wong leg	Coleman Wongavg 33.9¢	$71.52	—	-$71.52
PA pauleta23	Yosuke Watanukiavg 57¢	$102.12	$179.05	+$76.93	66% 24433-12487 (36920)
NM NM-PCTR	Coleman Wongavg 54¢	$180.85	—	-$180.85	64% 10175-5710 (15885)
GC GC-PCTR	Coleman Wongavg 54¢	$102.13	—	-$102.13	64% 10173-5762 (15935)

Limousin

Yosuke Watanuki

Invested

$21,626.9

Value

$29.2K

PnL

+$7.5K

Record

50%

1821-1809 (3630)

ferrariChampions2026

Yosuke Watanuki

Invested

$19,694.93

Value

$18.8K

PnL

-$737.65

Record

42%

8117-11313 (19430)

Venusian

Yosuke Watanuki

Invested

$15,063.39

Value

$20.6K

PnL

+$5.6K

Record

49%

1807-1885 (3692)

Flaznorp

Yosuke Watanuki

Invested

$7,257.96

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

51%

27041-25614 (52655)

RN1

Yosuke Watanuki

Invested

$6,720.27

Value

$11.6K

PnL

+$4.9K

Record

53%

62265-54490 (116755)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Coleman Wong

Invested

$9,705.87

Value

$6.1K

PnL

$-3.6K

Record

51%

4999-4865 (9864)

Both legs:

Yosuke Watanuki$3,841.1263.1¢+$2.2K

Coleman Wong$5,816.1730.1¢$-5.8K

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Yosuke Watanuki

Invested

$8,042.88

Value

$10.6K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

53%

6325-5608 (11933)

LightParadox

Yosuke Watanuki

Invested

$6,389.96

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

49%

1765-1864 (3629)

KkunnCTR

Coleman Wong

Invested

$9,213.63

Value

—

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

42%

253-343 (596)

38791873984189

Yosuke Watanuki

Invested

$5,027.08

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$467.76

Record

48%

62365-67229 (129594)

TRCM

Yosuke Watanuki

Invested

$2,637.02

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$150.81

Record

55%

4078-3288 (7366)

redvinnyCTR

Coleman Wong

Invested

$6,711.53

Value

—

PnL

$-6.7K

Record

75%

1625-538 (2163)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Yosuke Watanuki

Invested

$1,989.94

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$294.45

Record

48%

1742-1871 (3613)

Both legs:

Yosuke Watanuki$1,237.9673¢+$457.53

Coleman Wong$751.9844.3¢-$751.98

0xheavy888

Yosuke Watanuki

Invested

$1,411.63

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$769.73

Record

56%

8212-6519 (14731)

VeryLucky888CTR

Coleman Wong

Invested

$2,504.32

Value

—

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

58%

47459-34244 (81703)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Coleman Wong

Invested

$1,265.34

Value

—

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

51%

2054-1984 (4038)

Eulhunter

Yosuke Watanuki

Invested

$615.08

Value

$814.78

PnL

+$199.7

Record

54%

6320-5389 (11709)

0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893CTR

Coleman Wong

Invested

$781.75

Value

—

PnL

-$781.75

Record

39%

438-697 (1135)

thestingsnake

Yosuke Watanuki

Invested

$3,067.27

Value

$485.98

PnL

-$377.22

Record

60%

4504-3004 (7508)

1lovejump

Yosuke Watanuki

Invested

$873.53

Value

$312.3

PnL

+$20.63

Record

53%

825-731 (1556)

cigarettes

Yosuke Watanuki

Invested

$187.5

Value

$250

PnL

+$62.5

Record

53%

24313-21381 (45694)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Yosuke Watanuki

Invested

$191.93

Value

$202.33

PnL

+$10.4

Record

52%

14644-13309 (27953)

Both legs:

Yosuke Watanuki$120.4159.5¢+$81.92

Coleman Wong$71.5233.9¢-$71.52

pauleta23

Yosuke Watanuki

Invested

$102.12

Value

$179.05

PnL

+$76.93

Record

66%

24433-12487 (36920)

NM-PCTR

Coleman Wong

Invested

$180.85

Value

—

PnL

-$180.85

Record

64%

10175-5710 (15885)

GC-PCTR

Coleman Wong

Invested

$102.13

Value

—

PnL

-$102.13

Record

64%

10173-5762 (15935)

Smart Money Signal

Yosuke Watanuki

17 of 31 top traders (55%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x0cdd1034...8f0b65

Slug

atp-wong-watanuk-2026-11-07

Traders in this Market

Limousin

Yosuke Watanuki — $29.2K

+$7.5K

ferrariChampions2026

Yosuke Watanuki — $18.8K

-$737.65

Venusian

Yosuke Watanuki — $20.6K

+$5.6K

Flaznorp

Yosuke Watanuki — $9.6K

+$2.4K

RN1

Yosuke Watanuki — $11.6K

+$4.9K

6512395314597884

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

$-3.6K

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Yosuke Watanuki — $10.6K

+$2.5K

LightParadox

Yosuke Watanuki — $8.7K

+$2.3K

Kkunn

CTR

Coleman Wong — $0

$-2.3K

38791873984189

Yosuke Watanuki — $2.8K

+$467.76

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