Hersonissos 3: Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Cezar Cretu

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Cezar Cretu (56%) · Cezar Cretu at 89¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16

Pavlos Tsitsipas12¢Cezar Cretu88¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cezar Cretu

Consensus Traders

Cezar Cretu 56%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$10.15

Smart Money Entry

90¢ → 88.5¢

-2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralCezar Cretu at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cezar Cretu

9 of 16 top traders (56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pavlos Tsitsipas12%

Cezar Cretu89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cezar Cretu9 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,795

Combined PnL+$3.38

Pavlos Tsitsipas7 traders

Total Value$194.19

Total Shares1,821

Combined PnL+$6.77

Cezar Cretu — 56%Pavlos Tsitsipas — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Cezar Cretuavg 91¢	$646.8	$643.25	-$3.55	35% 171-317 (488)
LI LightParadox	Cezar Cretuavg 90¢	$328.38	$330.2	+$1.82	24% 202-637 (839)
TH thestingsnake	Cezar Cretuavg 88¢	$255.2	$262.45	+$7.25	16% 62-332 (394)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Cezar Cretuavg 90.4¢	$164.84	$163.75	-$1.09	56% 3782-2946 (6728)
VE Venusian	Cezar Cretuavg 89.6¢	$111.81	$110.45	-$1.36	24% 205-642 (847)
RN1CTR<$100	Pavlos Tsitsipasavg 9¢	$74.42	$90.96	+$16.54	58% 3749-2704 (6453)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Cezar Cretuavg 90.2¢	$61.58	$60.78	-$0.8	41% 3007-4413 (7420)
MA MadridTime<$100	Cezar Cretuavg 88¢	$42.13	$43.02	+$0.89	25% 204-624 (828)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Pavlos Tsitsipasavg 10.5¢	$42.9	$34.85	-$8.05	35% 60-113 (173)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Pavlos Tsitsipasavg 10¢	$28.24	$28.35	+$0.12	48% 767-833 (1600)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Pavlos Tsitsipasavg 9.6¢	$21.84	$21.61	-$0.24	50% 1387-1404 (2791)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Pavlos Tsitsipasavg 11¢	$16.5	$15.75	-$0.75	52% 5320-4824 (10144)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Cezar Cretuavg 89¢	$13.35	$13.58	+$0.22	12% 60-456 (516)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Cezar Cretuavg 89¢	$4.45	$4.45	+$0	23% 147-489 (636)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Pavlos Tsitsipasavg 11¢	$1.82	$1.57	-$0.25	24% 201-647 (848)
WH whosayCTR<$100	Pavlos Tsitsipasavg 17¢	$1.7	$1.1	-$0.6	— 10-6 (16)

omnibus-076daa

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$646.8

Value

$643.25

PnL

-$3.55

Record

35%

171-317 (488)

LightParadox

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$328.38

Value

$330.2

PnL

+$1.82

Record

24%

202-637 (839)

thestingsnake

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$255.2

Value

$262.45

PnL

+$7.25

Record

16%

62-332 (394)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$164.84

Value

$163.75

PnL

-$1.09

Record

56%

3782-2946 (6728)

Venusian

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$111.81

Value

$110.45

PnL

-$1.36

Record

24%

205-642 (847)

RN1CTR<$100

Pavlos Tsitsipas

Invested

$74.42

Value

$90.96

PnL

+$16.54

Record

58%

3749-2704 (6453)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$61.58

Value

$60.78

PnL

-$0.8

Record

41%

3007-4413 (7420)

MadridTime<$100

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$42.13

Value

$43.02

PnL

+$0.89

Record

25%

204-624 (828)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Pavlos Tsitsipas

Invested

$42.9

Value

$34.85

PnL

-$8.05

Record

35%

60-113 (173)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Pavlos Tsitsipas

Invested

$28.24

Value

$28.35

PnL

+$0.12

Record

48%

767-833 (1600)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Pavlos Tsitsipas

Invested

$21.84

Value

$21.61

PnL

-$0.24

Record

50%

1387-1404 (2791)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Pavlos Tsitsipas

Invested

$16.5

Value

$15.75

PnL

-$0.75

Record

52%

5320-4824 (10144)

BillBenter2026<$100

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$13.35

Value

$13.58

PnL

+$0.22

Record

12%

60-456 (516)

ameisgoat11<$100

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$0

Record

23%

147-489 (636)

LimousinCTR<$100

Pavlos Tsitsipas

Invested

$1.82

Value

$1.57

PnL

-$0.25

Record

24%

201-647 (848)

whosayCTR<$100

Pavlos Tsitsipas

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$0.6

Record

—

10-6 (16)

Research grade

NeutralCezar Cretu at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cezar Cretu

9 of 16 top traders (56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cezar Cretu wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.