Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Thiago Cigarran, while the market favors Franco Ribero (75%). 12 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Montevideo: Franco Ribero vs Thiago Cigarran

12 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Thiago Cigarran (63%) · Thiago Cigarran at 25¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 22

Franco Ribero75¢Thiago Cigarran25¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thiago Cigarran

Consensus Traders

Thiago Cigarran 63%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.6K

Combined PnL

-$636.73

Smart Money Entry

37.7¢ → 25¢

-34% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidThiago Cigarran at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thiago Cigarran

12 of 19 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Franco Ribero 75%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Franco Ribero75%

Thiago Cigarran25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Franco Ribero7 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares4,938

Combined PnL-$44.24

Thiago Cigarran12 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares11,574

Combined PnL-$592.5

Franco Ribero — 37%Thiago Cigarran — 63%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Franco Riberoavg 72.7¢	$2.7K	$2.2K	-$482.95	50% 4044-4051 (8095)
RN1CTR	Thiago Cigarranavg 43¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$24.06	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
VE Venusian	Franco Riberoavg 44.5¢	$1.1K	$1.6K	+$455.46	38% 1342-2205 (3547)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Thiago Cigarranavg 47.9¢	$1.2K	$932.5	-$7.5	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
└ Thiago Cigarran leg	Thiago Cigarranavg 47.9¢	$695	$616.25	-$78.75
└ Franco Ribero leg	Franco Riberoavg 50¢	$275	$316.25	+$71.25
LI LimousinCTR	Thiago Cigarranavg 28.2¢	$929.48	$808.71	-$120.77	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100	Thiago Cigarranavg 40.6¢	$1.3K	$642.92	-$329.45	48% 630-669 (1299)
└ Thiago Cigarran leg	Thiago Cigarranavg 40.6¢	$811.13	$488.9	-$330.36
└ Franco Ribero leg	Franco Riberoavg 71.8¢	$146.39	$154.02	+$0.91
MA MadridTime	Franco Riberoavg 71¢	$448.97	$381	-$24.93	38% 1342-2182 (3524)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Thiago Cigarranavg 40.3¢	$476.84	$289.85	-$187	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
BA babybellsARB<$100	Thiago Cigarranavg 34.9¢	$448.7	$287.3	-$39.36	34% 268-521 (789)
└ Franco Ribero leg	Franco Riberoavg 62.8¢	$135.91	$163.29	+$38.93
└ Thiago Cigarran leg	Thiago Cigarranavg 34.9¢	$176.74	$124.02	-$78.28
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	Thiago Cigarranavg 38.3¢	$1.0K	$251.5	-$241.48	48% 372-408 (780)
└ Thiago Cigarran leg	Thiago Cigarranavg 38.3¢	$301.8	$169.6	-$195.9
└ Franco Ribero leg	Franco Riberoavg 66.4¢	$69.28	$81.91	-$45.58
38 38791873984189CTR	Thiago Cigarranavg 43.4¢	$598.92	$247.63	-$248.33	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Thiago Cigarranavg 43.3¢	$225.1	$171.04	-$54.06	56% 4162-3255 (7417)
└ Franco Ribero leg	Franco Riberoavg 75.1¢	$102.57	$104.53	+$1.96
└ Thiago Cigarran leg	Thiago Cigarranavg 43.3¢	$122.53	$66.51	-$56.02
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Thiago Cigarranavg 32.4¢	$210.37	$167.9	-$42.47	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
└ Thiago Cigarran leg	Thiago Cigarranavg 32.4¢	$180.44	$130.97	-$49.47
└ Franco Ribero leg	Franco Riberoavg 62¢	$29.93	$36.93	+$7
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Thiago Cigarranavg 25.5¢	$163.29	$148.7	-$10.09	36% 252-449 (701)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Thiago Cigarranavg 43¢	$138.25	$136.64	-$1.61	51% 3935-3724 (7659)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Thiago Cigarranavg 42¢	$84	$85	+$1	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
PA pauleta23<$100	Franco Riberoavg 70.3¢	$43.52	$46.45	+$2.93	43% 560-757 (1317)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Thiago Cigarranavg 42¢	$42	$42.5	+$0.5	46% 472-559 (1031)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	Thiago Cigarranavg 59¢	$37.34	$37.02	-$0.32	48% 224-246 (470)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Franco Riberoavg 44¢	$23.78	$28.42	+$4.64	53% 217-191 (408)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Thiago Cigarranavg 57¢	$18.31	$18.95	+$0.64	46% 113-135 (248)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Thiago Cigarranavg 30¢	$20.17	$16.47	-$3.7	46% 631-739 (1370)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Franco Riberoavg 69¢	$9.85	$10.48	+$0.63	83% 962-202 (1164)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Thiago Cigarranavg 37¢	$10.71	$6.93	+$1.22	48% 2522-2734 (5256)
SE sentrio<$100	Franco Riberoavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.82	-$0.03	41% 1175-1673 (2848)

6512395314597884

Franco Ribero

Invested

$2,676.26

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$482.95

Record

50%

4044-4051 (8095)

RN1CTR

Thiago Cigarran

Invested

$2,068.73

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$24.06

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

Venusian

Franco Ribero

Invested

$1,131.21

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$455.46

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

NotJumpARB<$100

Thiago Cigarran

Invested

$1,220

Value

$932.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

Both legs:

Thiago Cigarran$69547.9¢-$78.75

Franco Ribero$27550¢+$71.25

LimousinCTR

Thiago Cigarran

Invested

$929.48

Value

$808.71

PnL

-$120.77

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100

Thiago Cigarran

Invested

$1,262.16

Value

$642.92

PnL

-$329.45

Record

48%

630-669 (1299)

Both legs:

Thiago Cigarran$811.1340.6¢-$330.36

Franco Ribero$146.3971.8¢+$0.91

MadridTime

Franco Ribero

Invested

$448.97

Value

$381

PnL

-$24.93

Record

38%

1342-2182 (3524)

FlaznorpCTR

Thiago Cigarran

Invested

$476.84

Value

$289.85

PnL

-$187

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

babybellsARB<$100

Thiago Cigarran

Invested

$448.7

Value

$287.3

PnL

-$39.36

Record

34%

268-521 (789)

Both legs:

Franco Ribero$135.9162.8¢+$38.93

Thiago Cigarran$176.7434.9¢-$78.28

thirdt1meARB<$100

Thiago Cigarran

Invested

$1,039.32

Value

$251.5

PnL

-$241.48

Record

48%

372-408 (780)

Both legs:

Thiago Cigarran$301.838.3¢-$195.9

Franco Ribero$69.2866.4¢-$45.58

38791873984189CTR

Thiago Cigarran

Invested

$598.92

Value

$247.63

PnL

-$248.33

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Thiago Cigarran

Invested

$225.1

Value

$171.04

PnL

-$54.06

Record

56%

4162-3255 (7417)

Both legs:

Franco Ribero$102.5775.1¢+$1.96

Thiago Cigarran$122.5343.3¢-$56.02

LightParadoxARB<$100

Thiago Cigarran

Invested

$210.37

Value

$167.9

PnL

-$42.47

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

Both legs:

Thiago Cigarran$180.4432.4¢-$49.47

Franco Ribero$29.9362¢+$7

thestingsnakeCTR

Thiago Cigarran

Invested

$163.29

Value

$148.7

PnL

-$10.09

Record

36%

252-449 (701)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Thiago Cigarran

Invested

$138.25

Value

$136.64

PnL

-$1.61

Record

51%

3935-3724 (7659)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Thiago Cigarran

Invested

$84

Value

$85

PnL

+$1

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

pauleta23<$100

Franco Ribero

Invested

$43.52

Value

$46.45

PnL

+$2.93

Record

43%

560-757 (1317)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Thiago Cigarran

Invested

$42

Value

$42.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

46%

472-559 (1031)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

Thiago Cigarran

Invested

$37.34

Value

$37.02

PnL

-$0.32

Record

48%

224-246 (470)

Eulhunter<$100

Franco Ribero

Invested

$23.78

Value

$28.42

PnL

+$4.64

Record

53%

217-191 (408)

efntrickCTR<$100

Thiago Cigarran

Invested

$18.31

Value

$18.95

PnL

+$0.64

Record

46%

113-135 (248)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Thiago Cigarran

Invested

$20.17

Value

$16.47

PnL

-$3.7

Record

46%

631-739 (1370)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Franco Ribero

Invested

$9.85

Value

$10.48

PnL

+$0.63

Record

83%

962-202 (1164)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Thiago Cigarran

Invested

$10.71

Value

$6.93

PnL

+$1.22

Record

48%

2522-2734 (5256)

sentrio<$100

Franco Ribero

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.82

PnL

-$0.03

Record

41%

1175-1673 (2848)

Research grade

AvoidThiago Cigarran at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Thiago Cigarran

12 of 19 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Franco Ribero 75%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thiago Cigarran wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.0%

25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$270.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

370.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.