Knoxville: Max Hans Rehberg vs Daniel Milavsky

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Max Hans Rehberg (40%) · Max Hans Rehberg at 55¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 20

Max Hans Rehberg55¢Daniel Milavsky45¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Max Hans Rehberg

Consensus Traders

Max Hans Rehberg 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$108.51

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 54.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralMax Hans Rehberg at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Max Hans Rehberg

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Max Hans Rehberg55%

Daniel Milavsky46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Max Hans Rehberg4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,746

Combined PnL+$82.29

Daniel Milavsky6 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,291

Combined PnL+$26.22

Max Hans Rehberg — 40%Daniel Milavsky — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Max Hans Rehbergavg 54¢	$2.6K	$1.5K	+$79.96	53% 1030-921 (1951)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 54¢	$653.66	$667	+$13.34	53% 388-339 (727)
└ Max Hans Rehberg leg	Max Hans Rehbergavg 54¢	$360.18	$363.52	+$3.34
└ Daniel Milavsky leg	Daniel Milavskyavg 44¢	$293.48	$303.49	+$10
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Daniel Milavskyavg 43¢	$330.29	$345.65	+$15.36	59% 482-333 (815)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Daniel Milavskyavg 43.5¢	$248.79	$257.4	+$8.61	47% 189-212 (401)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Daniel Milavskyavg 45¢	$235.35	$235.35	+$0	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 44.4¢	$92.45	$93.6	+$1.15	56% 307-245 (552)
EF efntrick<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 54¢	$86.4	$87.2	+$0.8	44% 76-98 (174)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 45¢	$54.98	$55.59	+$0.61	43% 808-1065 (1873)
fyrskenCTR<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 45¢	$44.15	$44.64	+$0.49	52% 46-43 (89)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 52¢	$28.6	$29.98	+$1.38	44% 391-495 (886)
PA Pan9X<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 54¢	$16.74	$16.9	+$0.16	49% 1306-1355 (2661)

VeryLucky888

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$2,599.65

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$79.96

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$653.66

Value

$667

PnL

+$13.34

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

Both legs:

Max Hans Rehberg$360.1854¢+$3.34

Daniel Milavsky$293.4844¢+$10

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$330.29

Value

$345.65

PnL

+$15.36

Record

59%

482-333 (815)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$248.79

Value

$257.4

PnL

+$8.61

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

FlaznorpCTR

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$235.35

Value

$235.35

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$92.45

Value

$93.6

PnL

+$1.15

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

efntrick<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$86.4

Value

$87.2

PnL

+$0.8

Record

44%

76-98 (174)

sentrioCTR<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$54.98

Value

$55.59

PnL

+$0.61

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

fyrskenCTR<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$44.15

Value

$44.64

PnL

+$0.49

Record

52%

46-43 (89)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$28.6

Value

$29.98

PnL

+$1.38

Record

44%

391-495 (886)

Pan9X<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$16.74

Value

$16.9

PnL

+$0.16

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

Research grade

NeutralMax Hans Rehberg at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Max Hans Rehberg

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Max Hans Rehberg wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.