Matsuyama: Mili Poljicak vs Kaichi Uchida

10 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Kaichi Uchida (48%) · Kaichi Uchida at 71¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 17

Mili Poljicak30¢Kaichi Uchida70¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kaichi Uchida

Consensus Traders

Kaichi Uchida 48%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.4K

Combined PnL

$456.71

Smart Money Entry

65.3¢ → 70.5¢

+8% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralKaichi Uchida at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kaichi Uchida

10 of 21 top traders (48%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Mili Poljicak30%

Kaichi Uchida71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kaichi Uchida10 traders

Total Value$12.3K

Total Shares17,347

Combined PnL+$575.5

Mili Poljicak11 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares14,882

Combined PnL-$118.79

Kaichi Uchida — 48%Mili Poljicak — 52%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-35 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

53% of non-arb traders are on Kaichi Uchida. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMili Poljicak 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpKaichi Uchida 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKaichi Uchida 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedKaichi Uchida 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kaichi Uchida 53% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Kaichi Uchidaavg 63¢	$9.1K	$5.0K	+$134.78	28% 121-308 (429)
└ Kaichi Uchida leg	Kaichi Uchidaavg 63¢	$3.8K	$4.0K	+$149.83
└ Mili Poljicak leg	Mili Poljicakavg 35¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$15.05
MA MadridTime	Kaichi Uchidaavg 59.5¢	$3.5K	$4.1K	+$528.31	26% 121-344 (465)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Mili Poljicakavg 32.5¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$142	43% 131-176 (307)
VE Venusian	Kaichi Uchidaavg 76¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$182.3	27% 128-350 (478)
LI Limousin	Kaichi Uchidaavg 64.9¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$33.61	26% 127-363 (490)
LI LightParadox	Kaichi Uchidaavg 67.2¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$50.68	28% 130-331 (461)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Mili Poljicakavg 34.9¢	$922.68	$725.91	+$44.24	49% 427-449 (876)
└ Mili Poljicak leg	Mili Poljicakavg 34.9¢	$522.36	$516.96	+$26.1
└ Kaichi Uchida leg	Kaichi Uchidaavg 59.8¢	$190.81	$208.95	+$18.14
TH thirdt1meCTR	Mili Poljicakavg 35.8¢	$831.63	$690.67	-$59.76	33% 34-68 (102)
TH thestingsnake	Kaichi Uchidaavg 57.1¢	$398.98	$488.58	+$89.61	23% 43-145 (188)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Mili Poljicakavg 33.2¢	$335.59	$350.56	+$14.98	53% 330-294 (624)
RU RUDY2323CTR	Mili Poljicakavg 48¢	$1.0K	$348.96	-$151.04	— 9-8 (17)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Kaichi Uchidaavg 64.5¢	$278.81	$279.21	+$0.4	37% 50-86 (136)
└ Kaichi Uchida leg	Kaichi Uchidaavg 64.5¢	$172.34	$184.36	+$12.02
└ Mili Poljicak leg	Mili Poljicakavg 34.8¢	$106.46	$94.85	-$11.61
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Kaichi Uchidaavg 54.2¢	$331.27	$210.36	+$30.66	20% 50-202 (252)
OM omnibus-076daa	Kaichi Uchidaavg 59¢	$245.13	$163.01	+$18.38	33% 108-219 (327)
BA babybellsCTR	Mili Poljicakavg 40¢	$138.97	$120.83	-$18.14	21% 47-172 (219)
tradecraftCTR	Mili Poljicakavg 33¢	$315.3	$111.93	+$7.88	18% 63-288 (351)
SU suitcase6628CTR	Mili Poljicakavg 47¢	$104.34	$74.37	-$29.97	61% 78-49 (127)
machinelearned<$100	Kaichi Uchidaavg 63.7¢	$42.04	$45.26	+$3.22	26% 192-537 (729)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Kaichi Uchidaavg 64.6¢	$32.32	$35.75	+$3.43	13% 40-279 (319)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Mili Poljicakavg 63¢	$62.54	$35.24	-$27.3	69% 34-15 (49)
SE sentrio<$100	Kaichi Uchidaavg 67¢	$19.3	$12.83	-$0.1	28% 99-254 (353)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Mili Poljicakavg 34¢	$8.84	$8.97	+$0.13	55% 41-33 (74)
OJ ojgCTR<$100	Mili Poljicakavg 22¢	$4.4	$6.9	+$2.5	30% 55-126 (181)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR<$100	Mili Poljicakavg 35¢	$13.25	$4.57	-$0.07	6% 33-500 (533)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Kaichi Uchida

Invested

$9,106.24

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$134.78

Record

28%

121-308 (429)

Both legs:

Kaichi Uchida$3,843.0663¢+$149.83

Mili Poljicak$1,053.5135¢-$15.05

MadridTime

Kaichi Uchida

Invested

$3,541.62

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$528.31

Record

26%

121-344 (465)

6512395314597884CTR

Mili Poljicak

Invested

$3,180.77

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$142

Record

43%

131-176 (307)

Venusian

Kaichi Uchida

Invested

$3,049.85

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$182.3

Record

27%

128-350 (478)

Limousin

Kaichi Uchida

Invested

$2,508.59

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$33.61

Record

26%

127-363 (490)

LightParadox

Kaichi Uchida

Invested

$1,822.68

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$50.68

Record

28%

130-331 (461)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Mili Poljicak

Invested

$922.68

Value

$725.91

PnL

+$44.24

Record

49%

427-449 (876)

Both legs:

Mili Poljicak$522.3634.9¢+$26.1

Kaichi Uchida$190.8159.8¢+$18.14

thirdt1meCTR

Mili Poljicak

Invested

$831.63

Value

$690.67

PnL

-$59.76

Record

33%

34-68 (102)

thestingsnake

Kaichi Uchida

Invested

$398.98

Value

$488.58

PnL

+$89.61

Record

23%

43-145 (188)

FlaznorpCTR

Mili Poljicak

Invested

$335.59

Value

$350.56

PnL

+$14.98

Record

53%

330-294 (624)

RUDY2323CTR

Mili Poljicak

Invested

$1,041.67

Value

$348.96

PnL

-$151.04

Record

—

9-8 (17)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Kaichi Uchida

Invested

$278.81

Value

$279.21

PnL

+$0.4

Record

37%

50-86 (136)

Both legs:

Kaichi Uchida$172.3464.5¢+$12.02

Mili Poljicak$106.4634.8¢-$11.61

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Kaichi Uchida

Invested

$331.27

Value

$210.36

PnL

+$30.66

Record

20%

50-202 (252)

omnibus-076daa

Kaichi Uchida

Invested

$245.13

Value

$163.01

PnL

+$18.38

Record

33%

108-219 (327)

babybellsCTR

Mili Poljicak

Invested

$138.97

Value

$120.83

PnL

-$18.14

Record

21%

47-172 (219)

tradecraftCTR

Mili Poljicak

Invested

$315.3

Value

$111.93

PnL

+$7.88

Record

18%

63-288 (351)

suitcase6628CTR

Mili Poljicak

Invested

$104.34

Value

$74.37

PnL

-$29.97

Record

61%

78-49 (127)

machinelearned<$100

Kaichi Uchida

Invested

$42.04

Value

$45.26

PnL

+$3.22

Record

26%

192-537 (729)

BillBenter2026<$100

Kaichi Uchida

Invested

$32.32

Value

$35.75

PnL

+$3.43

Record

13%

40-279 (319)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Mili Poljicak

Invested

$62.54

Value

$35.24

PnL

-$27.3

Record

69%

34-15 (49)

sentrio<$100

Kaichi Uchida

Invested

$19.3

Value

$12.83

PnL

-$0.1

Record

28%

99-254 (353)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Mili Poljicak

Invested

$8.84

Value

$8.97

PnL

+$0.13

Record

55%

41-33 (74)

ojgCTR<$100

Mili Poljicak

Invested

$4.4

Value

$6.9

PnL

+$2.5

Record

30%

55-126 (181)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR<$100

Mili Poljicak

Invested

$13.25

Value

$4.57

PnL

-$0.07

Record

33-500 (533)

Research grade

NeutralKaichi Uchida at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kaichi Uchida

10 of 21 top traders (48%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-35 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

53% of non-arb traders are on Kaichi Uchida. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMili Poljicak 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpKaichi Uchida 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKaichi Uchida 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedKaichi Uchida 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kaichi Uchida 53% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kaichi Uchida wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.