Helsinki: Oskari Paldanius vs Svyatoslav Gulin

10 of 38 top Polymarket traders hold Oskari Paldanius (26%) · Oskari Paldanius at 67¢ · $270K held · ends Nov 22

Oskari Paldanius67¢Svyatoslav Gulin33¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oskari Paldanius

Consensus Traders

Oskari Paldanius 26%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$269.6K

Combined PnL

$6.3K

Smart Money Entry

60.5¢ → 66.5¢

+10% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralOskari Paldanius at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oskari Paldanius

10 of 38 top traders (26%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed28 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Oskari Paldanius67%

Svyatoslav Gulin34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oskari Paldanius10 traders

Total Value$159.5K

Total Shares243,976

Combined PnL+$11.9K

Svyatoslav Gulin28 traders

Total Value$66.2K

Total Shares189,261

Combined PnL$-5.6K

Oskari Paldanius — 26%Svyatoslav Gulin — 74%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Oskari Paldanius. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOskari Paldanius 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Svyatoslav Gulin 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR crazyoddslover	Oskari Paldaniusavg 58.6¢	$58.7K	$64.6K	+$5.9K	— 10-9 (19)
KA kalmal	Oskari Paldaniusavg 62.1¢	$50.1K	$52.1K	+$1.9K	— 2-1 (3)
RN1ARB<$100	Svyatoslav Gulinavg 40.6¢	$45.8K	$40.4K	$-5.3K	54% 5979-5052 (11031)
└ Svyatoslav Gulin leg	Svyatoslav Gulinavg 40.6¢	$27.7K	$21.4K	$-6.2K
└ Oskari Paldanius leg	Oskari Paldaniusavg 65.4¢	$18.1K	$19.0K	+$866.19
MAJADOARGENTINO	Oskari Paldaniusavg 60.7¢	$30.3K	$34.2K	+$3.9K	— 8-1 (9)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Svyatoslav Gulinavg 35.9¢	$27.4K	$27.1K	-$312.55	51% 3925-3721 (7646)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Svyatoslav Gulinavg 39.5¢	$26.2K	$23.6K	$-2.7K	50% 2819-2838 (5657)
AR arman1969	Oskari Paldaniusavg 65.7¢	$5.1K	$5.0K	-$93.49	— 4-1 (5)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Svyatoslav Gulinavg 38.9¢	$3.5K	$3.2K	-$309.33	49% 4576-4835 (9411)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Svyatoslav Gulinavg 37.7¢	$5.9K	$2.8K	-$758.52	48% 367-395 (762)
VE VenusianCTR	Svyatoslav Gulinavg 41.1¢	$2.5K	$1.9K	-$441.33	38% 1314-2159 (3473)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Oskari Paldaniusavg 61.8¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$18.15	56% 4148-3245 (7393)
└ Oskari Paldanius leg	Oskari Paldaniusavg 61.8¢	$939.66	$996.43	+$56.78
└ Svyatoslav Gulin leg	Svyatoslav Gulinavg 37.3¢	$519.9	$481.27	-$38.63
CA CandleHammerDrums	Oskari Paldaniusavg 67.7¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$50.17	49% 616-642 (1258)
LI LimousinCTR	Svyatoslav Gulinavg 32.6¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$48.95	38% 1289-2127 (3416)
tradecraftCTR	Svyatoslav Gulinavg 39.8¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$332.98	34% 449-883 (1332)
0X 0x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8	Oskari Paldaniusavg 59.4¢	$976.11	$1.1K	+$149.45	— 5-7 (12)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Oskari Paldaniusavg 58.1¢	$2.4K	$1.1K	-$70.78	50% 1088-1092 (2180)
└ Oskari Paldanius leg	Oskari Paldaniusavg 58.1¢	$734.41	$827.67	+$184.5
└ Svyatoslav Gulin leg	Svyatoslav Gulinavg 47.8¢	$317.32	$228.95	-$255.28
FL flatbarrelCTR	Svyatoslav Gulinavg 39.1¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	-$252.85	13% 59-388 (447)
0X 0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8	Oskari Paldaniusavg 58¢	$636.52	$751.75	+$115.23	— 9-2 (11)
TRCMCTR	Svyatoslav Gulinavg 39¢	$780	$630	-$150	17% 95-456 (551)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Oskari Paldaniusavg 65.5¢	$4.7K	$504.63	-$236.45	48% 3920-4262 (8182)
└ Oskari Paldanius leg	Oskari Paldaniusavg 65.5¢	$343.08	$342.88	-$254.41
└ Svyatoslav Gulin leg	Svyatoslav Gulinavg 38.1¢	$178.51	$161.75	+$17.97
BA babybellsARB<$100	Oskari Paldaniusavg 64.4¢	$825.92	$460.55	-$19.16	34% 259-513 (772)
└ Oskari Paldanius leg	Oskari Paldaniusavg 64.4¢	$305.11	$315.04	+$24.28
└ Svyatoslav Gulin leg	Svyatoslav Gulinavg 37.7¢	$163.62	$145.51	-$43.44
CI cigarettesCTR	Svyatoslav Gulinavg 40¢	$400	$425	+$25	53% 7447-6561 (14008)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Svyatoslav Gulinavg 36¢	$469.74	$411.35	-$58.39	35% 239-446 (685)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Svyatoslav Gulinavg 38.9¢	$412.54	$397.74	-$14.8	39% 1520-2392 (3912)
SC SchruteBucksCTR	Svyatoslav Gulinavg 39.5¢	$711	$322.84	-$132.37	27% 195-517 (712)

crazyoddslover

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$58,655.9

Value

$64.6K

PnL

+$5.9K

Record

—

10-9 (19)

kalmal

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$50,149.25

Value

$52.1K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

—

2-1 (3)

RN1ARB<$100

Svyatoslav Gulin

Invested

$45,753.59

Value

$40.4K

PnL

$-5.3K

Record

54%

5979-5052 (11031)

Both legs:

Svyatoslav Gulin$27,655.640.6¢$-6.2K

Oskari Paldanius$18,097.9965.4¢+$866.19

MAJADOARGENTINO

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$30,330.93

Value

$34.2K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

—

8-1 (9)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Svyatoslav Gulin

Invested

$27,425.11

Value

$27.1K

PnL

-$312.55

Record

51%

3925-3721 (7646)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Svyatoslav Gulin

Invested

$26,214.41

Value

$23.6K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

50%

2819-2838 (5657)

arman1969

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$5,121.57

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$93.49

Record

—

4-1 (5)

FlaznorpCTR

Svyatoslav Gulin

Invested

$3,509.15

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$309.33

Record

49%

4576-4835 (9411)

thirdt1meCTR

Svyatoslav Gulin

Invested

$5,881.42

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$758.52

Record

48%

367-395 (762)

VenusianCTR

Svyatoslav Gulin

Invested

$2,541.77

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$441.33

Record

38%

1314-2159 (3473)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$1,459.55

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$18.15

Record

56%

4148-3245 (7393)

Both legs:

Oskari Paldanius$939.6661.8¢+$56.78

Svyatoslav Gulin$519.937.3¢-$38.63

CandleHammerDrums

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$1,514.1

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$50.17

Record

49%

616-642 (1258)

LimousinCTR

Svyatoslav Gulin

Invested

$1,428.76

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$48.95

Record

38%

1289-2127 (3416)

tradecraftCTR

Svyatoslav Gulin

Invested

$1,592.98

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$332.98

Record

34%

449-883 (1332)

0x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$976.11

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$149.45

Record

—

5-7 (12)

NotJumpARB<$100

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$2,409.69

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$70.78

Record

50%

1088-1092 (2180)

Both legs:

Oskari Paldanius$734.4158.1¢+$184.5

Svyatoslav Gulin$317.3247.8¢-$255.28

flatbarrelCTR

Svyatoslav Gulin

Invested

$1,295.77

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$252.85

Record

13%

59-388 (447)

0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$636.52

Value

$751.75

PnL

+$115.23

Record

—

9-2 (11)

TRCMCTR

Svyatoslav Gulin

Invested

$780

Value

$630

PnL

-$150

Record

17%

95-456 (551)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$4,697.47

Value

$504.63

PnL

-$236.45

Record

48%

3920-4262 (8182)

Both legs:

Oskari Paldanius$343.0865.5¢-$254.41

Svyatoslav Gulin$178.5138.1¢+$17.97

babybellsARB<$100

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$825.92

Value

$460.55

PnL

-$19.16

Record

34%

259-513 (772)

Both legs:

Oskari Paldanius$305.1164.4¢+$24.28

Svyatoslav Gulin$163.6237.7¢-$43.44

cigarettesCTR

Svyatoslav Gulin

Invested

$400

Value

$425

PnL

+$25

Record

53%

7447-6561 (14008)

thestingsnakeCTR

Svyatoslav Gulin

Invested

$469.74

Value

$411.35

PnL

-$58.39

Record

35%

239-446 (685)

topdogbigboiCTR

Svyatoslav Gulin

Invested

$412.54

Value

$397.74

PnL

-$14.8

Record

39%

1520-2392 (3912)

SchruteBucksCTR

Svyatoslav Gulin

Invested

$711

Value

$322.84

PnL

-$132.37

Record

27%

195-517 (712)

Research grade

NeutralOskari Paldanius at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Oskari Paldanius

10 of 38 top traders (26%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed28 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Oskari Paldanius. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOskari Paldanius 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Svyatoslav Gulin 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oskari Paldanius wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.