Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Juncheng Shang, while the market favors Carl Overbeck (56%). 19 of 25 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Brisbane 3: Carl Overbeck vs Juncheng Shang

19 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Juncheng Shang (76%) · Juncheng Shang at 45¢ · $77K held · ends Nov 18

Carl Overbeck56¢Juncheng Shang44¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Juncheng Shang

Consensus Traders

Juncheng Shang 76%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$77.0K

Combined PnL

$7.9K

Smart Money Entry

65.6¢ → 44.5¢

-32% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

Research candidateJuncheng Shang at 45%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Juncheng Shang

19 of 25 top traders (76%)Underdog side (market favors Carl Overbeck 56%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Carl Overbeck56%

Juncheng Shang45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Carl Overbeck6 traders

Total Value$33.3K

Total Shares59,341

Combined PnL+$12.8K

Juncheng Shang19 traders

Total Value$34.9K

Total Shares55,502

Combined PnL$-4.9K

Carl Overbeck — 24%Juncheng Shang — 76%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+38 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

78% of non-arb traders are on Juncheng Shang. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Carl Overbeck) and the top 1000 (22 on Juncheng Shang) disagree here.

sniperJuncheng Shang 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJuncheng Shang 58% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedCarl Overbeck 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Juncheng Shang 82% · 22

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xe1C08abF3f7D340682A42811250223393DF7eCF1-1781642316918	Carl Overbeckavg 25.3¢	$8.0K	$17.5K	+$9.5K	50% 18-18 (36)
RN1CTR	Juncheng Shangavg 69.8¢	$13.8K	$13.4K	-$390.29	57% 4319-3324 (7643)
Woaifacai	Carl Overbeckavg 48¢	$9.6K	$11.1K	+$1.5K	62% 226-139 (365)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Juncheng Shangavg 70.9¢	$7.9K	$6.2K	+$127.17	47% 303-337 (640)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Juncheng Shangavg 66.1¢	$9.5K	$5.6K	$-2.6K	44% 139-175 (314)
SU suntori	Carl Overbeckavg 33.9¢	$3.0K	$4.3K	+$1.7K	47% 1401-1566 (2967)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Juncheng Shangavg 83.6¢	$4.0K	$2.9K	-$997.94	33% 503-1013 (1516)
└ Carl Overbeck leg	Carl Overbeckavg 53¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$16.02
└ Juncheng Shang leg	Juncheng Shangavg 83.6¢	$2.1K	$1.2K	-$981.92
isco22CTR	Juncheng Shangavg 50¢	$3.0K	$2.7K	-$329.28	— 1-14 (15)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Juncheng Shangavg 67.3¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$154.57	51% 2328-2218 (4546)
└ Juncheng Shang leg	Juncheng Shangavg 67.3¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$286.45
└ Carl Overbeck leg	Carl Overbeckavg 36.4¢	$782.72	$914.6	+$131.88
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Juncheng Shangavg 52¢	$2.7K	$2.3K	-$383.73	51% 1975-1866 (3841)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Juncheng Shangavg 52¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$296.74	32% 489-1029 (1518)
└ Juncheng Shang leg	Juncheng Shangavg 52¢	$717.89	$697.18	-$20.71
└ Carl Overbeck leg	Carl Overbeckavg 25.7¢	$342.59	$660.04	+$317.45
VE VenusianCTR	Juncheng Shangavg 69.6¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	-$502.22	32% 496-1046 (1542)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Juncheng Shangavg 77.2¢	$4.3K	$939.89	-$867.79	47% 1845-2082 (3927)
└ Juncheng Shang leg	Juncheng Shangavg 77.2¢	$1.1K	$585.97	-$948.11
└ Carl Overbeck leg	Carl Overbeckavg 34.5¢	$208.99	$353.92	+$80.32
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Juncheng Shangavg 53.9¢	$2.0K	$882.15	-$278.62	54% 386-329 (715)
└ Juncheng Shang leg	Juncheng Shangavg 53.9¢	$565.97	$477.75	-$207.25
└ Carl Overbeck leg	Carl Overbeckavg 50¢	$371.01	$404.4	-$71.37
LI LightParadoxCTR	Juncheng Shangavg 79.1¢	$1.4K	$800.36	-$590.61	32% 500-1044 (1544)
CI cigarettesCTR	Juncheng Shangavg 70.9¢	$638	$657	+$19	53% 5995-5369 (11364)
machinelearnedCTR	Juncheng Shangavg 78¢	$616.94	$570.58	-$46.37	41% 615-871 (1486)
alpheclabs2CTR	Juncheng Shangavg 72.8¢	$447.43	$448.8	+$1.36	44% 159-200 (359)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR	Juncheng Shangavg 73¢	$446.42	$416.89	-$29.53	40% 230-347 (577)
OJ ojgCTR	Juncheng Shangavg 52¢	$468	$400.5	-$67.5	45% 154-191 (345)
TH thestingsnake	Carl Overbeckavg 38.2¢	$330.13	$291.93	+$57.77	28% 152-390 (542)
1L 1lovejumpCTR	Juncheng Shangavg 87¢	$854.31	$214.56	-$108.67	35% 88-163 (251)
EU EulhunterCTR	Juncheng Shangavg 72.8¢	$157.3	$157.68	+$0.38	50% 124-125 (249)
BA babybellsARB<$100	Juncheng Shangavg 72.8¢	$418.75	$136.25	-$39.45	26% 145-422 (567)
└ Carl Overbeck leg	Carl Overbeckavg 33.9¢	$54.22	$84	+$47.85
└ Juncheng Shang leg	Juncheng Shangavg 72.8¢	$80.07	$52.25	-$87.3
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Juncheng Shangavg 52¢	$106.59	$91.22	-$15.37	51% 3752-3559 (7311)

0xe1C08abF3f7D340682A42811250223393DF7eCF1-1781642316918

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$7,998.84

Value

$17.5K

PnL

+$9.5K

Record

50%

18-18 (36)

RN1CTR

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$13,780.23

Value

$13.4K

PnL

-$390.29

Record

57%

4319-3324 (7643)

Woaifacai

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$9,595.66

Value

$11.1K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

62%

226-139 (365)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$7,870.07

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$127.17

Record

47%

303-337 (640)

thirdt1meCTR

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$9,540.56

Value

$5.6K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

44%

139-175 (314)

suntori

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$3,047.09

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

47%

1401-1566 (2967)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$3,968.61

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$997.94

Record

33%

503-1013 (1516)

Both legs:

Carl Overbeck$1,698.4653¢-$16.02

Juncheng Shang$2,102.8783.6¢-$981.92

isco22CTR

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$2,993.41

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$329.28

Record

—

1-14 (15)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$2,746.48

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$154.57

Record

51%

2328-2218 (4546)

Both legs:

Juncheng Shang$1,963.7667.3¢-$286.45

Carl Overbeck$782.7236.4¢+$131.88

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$2,660.53

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$383.73

Record

51%

1975-1866 (3841)

LimousinARB<$100

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$1,060.48

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$296.74

Record

32%

489-1029 (1518)

Both legs:

Juncheng Shang$717.8952¢-$20.71

Carl Overbeck$342.5925.7¢+$317.45

VenusianCTR

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$1,595.59

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$502.22

Record

32%

496-1046 (1542)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$4,319.56

Value

$939.89

PnL

-$867.79

Record

47%

1845-2082 (3927)

Both legs:

Juncheng Shang$1,089.9977.2¢-$948.11

Carl Overbeck$208.9934.5¢+$80.32

NotJumpARB<$100

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$1,979.98

Value

$882.15

PnL

-$278.62

Record

54%

386-329 (715)

Both legs:

Juncheng Shang$565.9753.9¢-$207.25

Carl Overbeck$371.0150¢-$71.37

LightParadoxCTR

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$1,390.97

Value

$800.36

PnL

-$590.61

Record

32%

500-1044 (1544)

cigarettesCTR

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$638

Value

$657

PnL

+$19

Record

53%

5995-5369 (11364)

machinelearnedCTR

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$616.94

Value

$570.58

PnL

-$46.37

Record

41%

615-871 (1486)

alpheclabs2CTR

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$447.43

Value

$448.8

PnL

+$1.36

Record

44%

159-200 (359)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$446.42

Value

$416.89

PnL

-$29.53

Record

40%

230-347 (577)

ojgCTR

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$468

Value

$400.5

PnL

-$67.5

Record

45%

154-191 (345)

thestingsnake

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$330.13

Value

$291.93

PnL

+$57.77

Record

28%

152-390 (542)

1lovejumpCTR

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$854.31

Value

$214.56

PnL

-$108.67

Record

35%

88-163 (251)

EulhunterCTR

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$157.3

Value

$157.68

PnL

+$0.38

Record

50%

124-125 (249)

babybellsARB<$100

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$418.75

Value

$136.25

PnL

-$39.45

Record

26%

145-422 (567)

Both legs:

Carl Overbeck$54.2233.9¢+$47.85

Juncheng Shang$80.0772.8¢-$87.3

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$106.59

Value

$91.22

PnL

-$15.37

Record

51%

3752-3559 (7311)

Research grade

Research candidateJuncheng Shang at 45%

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Juncheng Shang

19 of 25 top traders (76%)Underdog side (market favors Carl Overbeck 56%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+38 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

78% of non-arb traders are on Juncheng Shang. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Carl Overbeck) and the top 1000 (22 on Juncheng Shang) disagree here.

sniperJuncheng Shang 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJuncheng Shang 58% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedCarl Overbeck 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Juncheng Shang 82% · 22

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Juncheng Shang wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.