Matsuyama: Kosuke Ogura vs Hikaru Shiraishi

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Hikaru Shiraishi (70%) · Hikaru Shiraishi at 70¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 16

Kosuke Ogura31¢Hikaru Shiraishi69¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hikaru Shiraishi

Consensus Traders

Hikaru Shiraishi 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

-$55.83

Smart Money Entry

71.2¢ → 69.5¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralHikaru Shiraishi at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hikaru Shiraishi

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Kosuke Ogura31%

Hikaru Shiraishi70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hikaru Shiraishi7 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares7,397

Combined PnL-$72.37

Kosuke Ogura3 traders

Total Value$199.48

Total Shares659

Combined PnL+$16.53

Hikaru Shiraishi — 70%Kosuke Ogura — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Hikaru Shiraishiavg 67.3¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$60.75	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
GL glennyorkshire	Hikaru Shiraishiavg 75.9¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$75.32	46% 233-271 (504)
LI LightParadox	Hikaru Shiraishiavg 68.9¢	$854.53	$866.38	+$11.85	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
MA MadridTime	Hikaru Shiraishiavg 79.5¢	$585.66	$502.78	-$82.88	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Kosuke Oguraavg 18.9¢	$229.39	$298.69	+$69.3	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
└ Kosuke Ogura leg	Kosuke Oguraavg 18.9¢	$135.12	$217.67	+$82.55
└ Hikaru Shiraishi leg	Hikaru Shiraishiavg 80.9¢	$94.27	$81.02	-$13.26
FL FlaznorpCTR	Kosuke Oguraavg 19.2¢	$84.16	$138.34	+$54.18	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
OJ ojg<$100	Hikaru Shiraishiavg 57.3¢	$51.6	$62.55	+$10.95	51% 3970-3784 (7754)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Kosuke Oguraavg 51.5¢	$85.72	$44.98	-$40.74	59% 7342-5092 (12434)
EF efntrick<$100	Hikaru Shiraishiavg 72.5¢	$87	$43.8	+$1.8	49% 3725-3946 (7671)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Kosuke Oguraavg 24.7¢	$13.07	$16.17	+$3.09	53% 6779-5931 (12710)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Hikaru Shiraishiavg 65.9¢	$8.98	$9.47	+$0.49	53% 15513-13750 (29263)

Limousin

Hikaru Shiraishi

Invested

$2,126.88

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$60.75

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

glennyorkshire

Hikaru Shiraishi

Invested

$1,947.11

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$75.32

Record

46%

233-271 (504)

LightParadox

Hikaru Shiraishi

Invested

$854.53

Value

$866.38

PnL

+$11.85

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

MadridTime

Hikaru Shiraishi

Invested

$585.66

Value

$502.78

PnL

-$82.88

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

VenusianARB<$100

Kosuke Ogura

Invested

$229.39

Value

$298.69

PnL

+$69.3

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

Both legs:

Kosuke Ogura$135.1218.9¢+$82.55

Hikaru Shiraishi$94.2780.9¢-$13.26

FlaznorpCTR

Kosuke Ogura

Invested

$84.16

Value

$138.34

PnL

+$54.18

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

ojg<$100

Hikaru Shiraishi

Invested

$51.6

Value

$62.55

PnL

+$10.95

Record

51%

3970-3784 (7754)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Kosuke Ogura

Invested

$85.72

Value

$44.98

PnL

-$40.74

Record

59%

7342-5092 (12434)

efntrick<$100

Hikaru Shiraishi

Invested

$87

Value

$43.8

PnL

+$1.8

Record

49%

3725-3946 (7671)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Kosuke Ogura

Invested

$13.07

Value

$16.17

PnL

+$3.09

Record

53%

6779-5931 (12710)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Hikaru Shiraishi

Invested

$8.98

Value

$9.47

PnL

+$0.49

Record

53%

15513-13750 (29263)

Research grade

NeutralHikaru Shiraishi at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hikaru Shiraishi

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hikaru Shiraishi wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.