Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Arvid Nordquist, while the market favors Alexander Vasilev (100%). 6 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Hersonissos 3: Arvid Nordquist vs Alexander Vasilev

6 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Arvid Nordquist (33%) · Arvid Nordquist at 0.1¢ · $37K held · ends Nov 15

Arvid Nordquist<1¢Alexander Vasilev>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Arvid Nordquist

Consensus Traders

Arvid Nordquist 33%

Total Value

$37.3K

Combined PnL

$718.18

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidArvid Nordquist at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Arvid Nordquist

6 of 18 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Alexander Vasilev 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Arvid Nordquist0%

Alexander Vasilev100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Arvid Nordquist6 traders

Total Value$22.1K

Total Shares42,887

Combined PnL$-5.2K

Alexander Vasilev12 traders

Total Value$15.3K

Total Shares15,437

Combined PnL+$5.9K

Arvid Nordquist — 33%Alexander Vasilev — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Arvid Nordquistavg 52.8¢	$15.7K	$15.0K	-$688.56	50% 549-553 (1102)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Alexander Vasilevavg 18.7¢	$1.6K	$7.5K	+$5.9K	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
LI LimousinCTR	Arvid Nordquistavg 59.7¢	$11.1K	$7.0K	$-4.1K	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
FL Flaznorp	Alexander Vasilevavg 75.6¢	$3.8K	$3.4K	-$399.83	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
VE Venusian	Alexander Vasilevavg 82.9¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$214.27	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
PA Paul973973	Alexander Vasilevavg 95.9¢	$900	$938.02	+$38.02	89% 1073-138 (1211)
LI LightParadox	Alexander Vasilevavg 87.5¢	$711.41	$549.87	-$161.54	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
machinelearned	Alexander Vasilevavg 46.6¢	$355.97	$384.99	+$29.03	55% 9938-8254 (18192)
EU Eulhunter	Alexander Vasilevavg 52.5¢	$218.21	$332.44	+$114.22	54% 6333-5398 (11731)
TH thestingsnake	Alexander Vasilevavg 93.8¢	$314.1	$304.85	+$9.85	60% 4530-3029 (7559)
tradecraft	Alexander Vasilevavg 90.7¢	$213.15	$234.88	+$21.73	51% 6523-6284 (12807)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Alexander Vasilevavg 34¢	$102.74	$135.99	+$33.24	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
PV pvc975<$100	Alexander Vasilevavg 99.9¢	$99.94	$99.99	+$0.05	98% 18444-384 (18828)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Alexander Vasilevavg 48¢	$28.8	$54.9	+$26.1	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Arvid Nordquistavg 53¢	$81.7	$31.9	-$49.8	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Arvid Nordquistavg 50¢	$315	$15.16	-$14.84	— 1-0 (1)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Arvid Nordquistavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.52	-$0.12	52% 9022-8174 (17196)
RN1CTR	Arvid Nordquistavg 21.6¢	$315.9	$0.73	-$315.17	53% 63014-55227 (118241)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Arvid Nordquist

Invested

$15,667.37

Value

$15.0K

PnL

-$688.56

Record

50%

549-553 (1102)

ferrariChampions2026

Alexander Vasilev

Invested

$1,569

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$5.9K

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

LimousinCTR

Arvid Nordquist

Invested

$11,135.11

Value

$7.0K

PnL

$-4.1K

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Flaznorp

Alexander Vasilev

Invested

$3,820.55

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$399.83

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Venusian

Alexander Vasilev

Invested

$1,072.89

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$214.27

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

Paul973973

Alexander Vasilev

Invested

$900

Value

$938.02

PnL

+$38.02

Record

89%

1073-138 (1211)

LightParadox

Alexander Vasilev

Invested

$711.41

Value

$549.87

PnL

-$161.54

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

machinelearned

Alexander Vasilev

Invested

$355.97

Value

$384.99

PnL

+$29.03

Record

55%

9938-8254 (18192)

Eulhunter

Alexander Vasilev

Invested

$218.21

Value

$332.44

PnL

+$114.22

Record

54%

6333-5398 (11731)

thestingsnake

Alexander Vasilev

Invested

$314.1

Value

$304.85

PnL

+$9.85

Record

60%

4530-3029 (7559)

tradecraft

Alexander Vasilev

Invested

$213.15

Value

$234.88

PnL

+$21.73

Record

51%

6523-6284 (12807)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Alexander Vasilev

Invested

$102.74

Value

$135.99

PnL

+$33.24

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

pvc975<$100

Alexander Vasilev

Invested

$99.94

Value

$99.99

PnL

+$0.05

Record

98%

18444-384 (18828)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Alexander Vasilev

Invested

$28.8

Value

$54.9

PnL

+$26.1

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Arvid Nordquist

Invested

$81.7

Value

$31.9

PnL

-$49.8

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Arvid Nordquist

Invested

$315

Value

$15.16

PnL

-$14.84

Record

—

1-0 (1)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Arvid Nordquist

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.52

PnL

-$0.12

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

RN1CTR

Arvid Nordquist

Invested

$315.9

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$315.17

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Research grade

AvoidArvid Nordquist at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Arvid Nordquist

6 of 18 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Alexander Vasilev 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Arvid Nordquist wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.