Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Taylor Fritz — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Taylor Fritz

Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz

Resolved Taylor Fritz. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Taylor Fritz. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Taylor Fritz 55%

12 arb excluded

Total Value

$318.2K

Combined PnL

$7.6K

Smart Money Signal

Taylor Fritz

22 of 39 top traders (56%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Alex Molcan0%

Taylor Fritz100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Taylor Fritz22 traders

Total Value$215.5K

Total Shares215,481

Combined PnL+$31.7K

Alex Molcan17 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares110,775

Combined PnL$-24.1K

Taylor Fritz — 56%Alex Molcan — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
99 999585	Taylor Fritzavg 80.4¢	$114.1K	$141.8K	+$27.7K	89% 63-8 (71)
RN1ARB<$100	Taylor Fritzavg 71.6¢	$32.3K	$29.9K	$-2.4K	53% 60059-52427 (112486)
└ Taylor Fritz leg	Taylor Fritzavg 71.6¢	$21.5K	$29.9K	+$8.5K
└ Alex Molcan leg	Alex Molcanavg 29.4¢	$10.8K	—	$-10.8K
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Alex Molcanavg 23.4¢	$15.1K	—	$-15.1K	56% 6177-4949 (11126)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Taylor Fritzavg 65¢	$25.8K	$21.5K	$-4.2K	51% 1093-1042 (2135)
└ Alex Molcan leg	Alex Molcanavg 39¢	$11.8K	—	$-11.8K
└ Taylor Fritz leg	Taylor Fritzavg 65¢	$14.0K	$21.5K	+$7.5K
CoinTrick	Taylor Fritzavg 99.9¢	$21.4K	$21.4K	+$21.41	98% 4291-105 (4396)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Taylor Fritzavg 72¢	$19.4K	$23.6K	+$4.1K	52% 1158-1077 (2235)
└ Taylor Fritz leg	Taylor Fritzavg 72¢	$17.0K	$23.6K	+$6.6K
└ Alex Molcan leg	Alex Molcanavg 26.3¢	$2.5K	—	$-2.5K
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Taylor Fritzavg 63.4¢	$12.4K	$12.3K	-$162.09	52% 14224-12997 (27221)
└ Taylor Fritz leg	Taylor Fritzavg 63.4¢	$7.8K	$12.3K	+$4.5K
└ Alex Molcan leg	Alex Molcanavg 36.7¢	$4.7K	—	$-4.7K
LI LimousinARB<$100	Taylor Fritzavg 69.8¢	$11.5K	$9.9K	$-1.6K	54% 1189-1028 (2217)
└ Alex Molcan leg	Alex Molcanavg 30.2¢	$4.6K	—	$-4.6K
└ Taylor Fritz leg	Taylor Fritzavg 69.8¢	$6.9K	$9.9K	+$3.0K
LI LightParadox	Taylor Fritzavg 71.5¢	$9.6K	$11.3K	+$1.7K	52% 1146-1041 (2187)
OM omnibus-076daa	Taylor Fritzavg 77.9¢	$11.2K	$13.4K	+$2.2K	50% 20734-20980 (41714)
38 38791873984189	Taylor Fritzavg 68.3¢	$9.9K	$8.1K	+$860.82	48% 59237-63255 (122492)
FL Flaznorp	Taylor Fritzavg 61.5¢	$7.6K	$6.4K	$-1.2K	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
RE redvinny	Taylor Fritzavg 79.8¢	$19.4K	$8.9K	+$3.6K	75% 1565-519 (2084)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Alex Molcanavg 22.1¢	$2.1K	—	$-2.1K	46% 1391-1643 (3034)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Alex Molcanavg 20¢	$2.4K	—	$-2.4K	71% 7114-2861 (9975)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Taylor Fritzavg 71.9¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$230.65	54% 6178-5224 (11402)
└ Taylor Fritz leg	Taylor Fritzavg 71.9¢	$1.8K	$2.6K	+$722.57
└ Alex Molcan leg	Alex Molcanavg 39.9¢	$953.22	—	-$953.22
SC SchruteBucks	Taylor Fritzavg 73.5¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	+$449.85	56% 1924-1490 (3414)
VeryLucky888CTR	Alex Molcanavg 20¢	$4.3K	—	-$675.63	58% 45427-32914 (78341)
TS TSFSYDCTR	Alex Molcanavg 19.8¢	$976.74	—	-$976.74	52% 156-144 (300)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Alex Molcanavg 20¢	$863	—	-$863	49% 4002-4214 (8216)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Alex Molcanavg 20¢	$837.25	—	-$837.25	61% 14035-9040 (23075)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Taylor Fritzavg 79¢	$1.5K	$850	+$8.5	39% 1338-2112 (3450)
└ Taylor Fritz leg	Taylor Fritzavg 79¢	$671.5	$850	+$178.5
└ Alex Molcan leg	Alex Molcanavg 20¢	$170	—	-$170
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Taylor Fritzavg 68.6¢	$6.8K	$745.08	-$499.03	52% 736-673 (1409)
└ Taylor Fritz leg	Taylor Fritzavg 68.6¢	$511	$745.08	-$295.91
└ Alex Molcan leg	Alex Molcanavg 37.1¢	$273.85	—	-$203.12
PA Paul973973	Taylor Fritzavg 86.6¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$155.79	89% 990-125 (1115)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Taylor Fritzavg 79¢	$1.2K	$425	-$80.75	40% 1343-2035 (3378)
└ Taylor Fritz leg	Taylor Fritzavg 79¢	$335.75	$425	+$89.25
└ Alex Molcan leg	Alex Molcanavg 20¢	$170	—	-$170

999585

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$114,067.23

Value

$141.8K

PnL

+$27.7K

Record

89%

63-8 (71)

RN1ARB<$100

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$32,303.38

Value

$29.9K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

53%

60059-52427 (112486)

Both legs:

Taylor Fritz$21,453.6971.6¢+$8.5K

Alex Molcan$10,849.6929.4¢$-10.8K

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Alex Molcan

Invested

$15,132.43

Value

—

PnL

$-15.1K

Record

56%

6177-4949 (11126)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$25,768.22

Value

$21.5K

PnL

$-4.2K

Record

51%

1093-1042 (2135)

Both legs:

Alex Molcan$11,778.7739¢$-11.8K

Taylor Fritz$13,989.4665¢+$7.5K

CoinTrick

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$21,386.4

Value

$21.4K

PnL

+$21.41

Record

98%

4291-105 (4396)

VenusianARB<$100

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$19,446.37

Value

$23.6K

PnL

+$4.1K

Record

52%

1158-1077 (2235)

Both legs:

Taylor Fritz$16,970.2572¢+$6.6K

Alex Molcan$2,476.1226.3¢$-2.5K

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$12,426.47

Value

$12.3K

PnL

-$162.09

Record

52%

14224-12997 (27221)

Both legs:

Taylor Fritz$7,775.7463.4¢+$4.5K

Alex Molcan$4,650.7336.7¢$-4.7K

LimousinARB<$100

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$11,531.45

Value

$9.9K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

54%

1189-1028 (2217)

Both legs:

Alex Molcan$4,601.4330.2¢$-4.6K

Taylor Fritz$6,930.0269.8¢+$3.0K

LightParadox

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$9,609.32

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

52%

1146-1041 (2187)

omnibus-076daa

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$11,211.93

Value

$13.4K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

50%

20734-20980 (41714)

38791873984189

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$9,928.41

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$860.82

Record

48%

59237-63255 (122492)

Flaznorp

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$7,621.22

Value

$6.4K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

redvinny

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$19,378.81

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$3.6K

Record

75%

1565-519 (2084)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Alex Molcan

Invested

$2,120.54

Value

—

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

46%

1391-1643 (3034)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Alex Molcan

Invested

$2,441

Value

—

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

71%

7114-2861 (9975)

EulhunterARB<$100

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$2,801.76

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$230.65

Record

54%

6178-5224 (11402)

Both legs:

Taylor Fritz$1,848.5571.9¢+$722.57

Alex Molcan$953.2239.9¢-$953.22

SchruteBucks

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$2,276.55

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$449.85

Record

56%

1924-1490 (3414)

VeryLucky888CTR

Alex Molcan

Invested

$4,282.96

Value

—

PnL

-$675.63

Record

58%

45427-32914 (78341)

TSFSYDCTR

Alex Molcan

Invested

$976.74

Value

—

PnL

-$976.74

Record

52%

156-144 (300)

NotradecopyCTR

Alex Molcan

Invested

$863

Value

—

PnL

-$863

Record

49%

4002-4214 (8216)

LilybaeumCTR

Alex Molcan

Invested

$837.25

Value

—

PnL

-$837.25

Record

61%

14035-9040 (23075)

GC-PARB<$100

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$1,521.5

Value

$850

PnL

+$8.5

Record

39%

1338-2112 (3450)

Both legs:

Taylor Fritz$671.579¢+$178.5

Alex Molcan$17020¢-$170

1lovejumpARB<$100

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$6,808.65

Value

$745.08

PnL

-$499.03

Record

52%

736-673 (1409)

Both legs:

Taylor Fritz$51168.6¢-$295.91

Alex Molcan$273.8537.1¢-$203.12

Paul973973

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$1,007

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$155.79

Record

89%

990-125 (1115)

NM-PARB<$100

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$1,185.75

Value

$425

PnL

-$80.75

Record

40%

1343-2035 (3378)

Both legs:

Taylor Fritz$335.7579¢+$89.25

Alex Molcan$17020¢-$170

Smart Money Signal

Taylor Fritz

22 of 39 top traders (56%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa3ba5e2f...669da1

Slug

atp-molcan-fritz-2026-11-04

Traders in this Market

999585

Taylor Fritz — $141.8K

+$27.7K

RN1

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

$-2.4K

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Alex Molcan — $0

MadridTime

Arbitrage — excluded

CoinTrick

Taylor Fritz — $21.4K

+$21.41

Venusian

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$4.1K

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Arbitrage — excluded

Limousin

Arbitrage — excluded

LightParadox

Taylor Fritz — $11.3K

+$1.7K

omnibus-076daa

Taylor Fritz — $13.4K

+$2.2K

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