Knoxville: Daniel Milavsky vs Murphy Cassone

11 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Daniel Milavsky (52%) · Daniel Milavsky at 100¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 17

Daniel Milavsky>99¢Murphy Cassone<1¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Daniel Milavsky

Consensus Traders

Daniel Milavsky 52%

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

83¢ → 100¢

+20% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralDaniel Milavsky at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Daniel Milavsky

11 of 21 top traders (52%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Daniel Milavsky100%

Murphy Cassone0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Daniel Milavsky11 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares7,466

Combined PnL+$875.32

Murphy Cassone10 traders

Total Value$6.51

Total Shares13,019

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Daniel Milavsky — 52%Murphy Cassone — 48%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

52% of non-arb traders are on Daniel Milavsky. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMurphy Cassone 67% · 3

Diverging

sniperDaniel Milavsky 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDaniel Milavsky 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedDaniel Milavsky 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Daniel Milavsky 52% · 21

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
YE yesmate	Daniel Milavskyavg 81.9¢	$2.2K	$2.6K	+$472.78	52% 178-165 (343)
VE Venusian	Daniel Milavskyavg 81.5¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$203.57	25% 219-662 (881)
TH thestingsnake	Daniel Milavskyavg 90.2¢	$729.77	$649.18	+$52.01	18% 78-346 (424)
MA MadridTime	Daniel Milavskyavg 77.7¢	$493.49	$635.13	+$141.64	25% 220-643 (863)
LI LightParadox	Daniel Milavskyavg 79.7¢	$462.37	$563.44	+$101.07	25% 221-650 (871)
LI Limousin	Daniel Milavskyavg 85.9¢	$462.22	$538.11	+$75.88	25% 219-662 (881)
FL Flaznorp	Daniel Milavskyavg 95¢	$577.91	$316.24	-$227.49	50% 1414-1418 (2832)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Daniel Milavskyavg 89.6¢	$186.87	$182.75	-$4.12	56% 3802-2968 (6770)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG	Daniel Milavskyavg 82¢	$119.99	$146.26	+$26.27	13% 59-379 (438)
PA pauleta23	Daniel Milavskyavg 80¢	$89.99	$112.37	+$22.38	23% 125-428 (553)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 80.7¢	$47.64	$58.97	+$11.33	15% 84-464 (548)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Murphy Cassoneavg 17.6¢	$1.1K	$2.97	$-1.0K	39% 78-123 (201)
38 38791873984189CTR	Murphy Cassoneavg 14.7¢	$758.85	$1.6	-$481.74	48% 898-974 (1872)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Murphy Cassoneavg 16.1¢	$256.76	$0.8	-$255.96	54% 1631-1394 (3025)
dips.CTR<$100	Murphy Cassoneavg 0.5¢	$5.71	$0.57	-$5.14	42% 204-281 (485)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Murphy Cassoneavg 13¢	$65	$0.25	-$64.75	64% 158-89 (247)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Murphy Cassoneavg 16.4¢	$62.7	$0.19	-$62.51	18% 84-374 (458)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Murphy Cassoneavg 14¢	$18.59	$0.07	-$18.53	53% 5388-4864 (10252)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Murphy Cassoneavg 12¢	$10.56	$0.04	-$10.52	50% 160-161 (321)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Murphy Cassoneavg 18¢	$3.96	$0.01	-$3.95	36% 354-629 (983)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Murphy Cassoneavg 30¢	$1.5	$0	-$1.5	49% 66-68 (134)

yesmate

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$2,151.87

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$472.78

Record

52%

178-165 (343)

Venusian

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$1,472.25

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$203.57

Record

25%

219-662 (881)

thestingsnake

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$729.77

Value

$649.18

PnL

+$52.01

Record

18%

78-346 (424)

MadridTime

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$493.49

Value

$635.13

PnL

+$141.64

Record

25%

220-643 (863)

LightParadox

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$462.37

Value

$563.44

PnL

+$101.07

Record

25%

221-650 (871)

Limousin

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$462.22

Value

$538.11

PnL

+$75.88

Record

25%

219-662 (881)

Flaznorp

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$577.91

Value

$316.24

PnL

-$227.49

Record

50%

1414-1418 (2832)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$186.87

Value

$182.75

PnL

-$4.12

Record

56%

3802-2968 (6770)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$119.99

Value

$146.26

PnL

+$26.27

Record

13%

59-379 (438)

pauleta23

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$89.99

Value

$112.37

PnL

+$22.38

Record

23%

125-428 (553)

BillBenter2026<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$47.64

Value

$58.97

PnL

+$11.33

Record

15%

84-464 (548)

thirdt1meCTR

Murphy Cassone

Invested

$1,078.66

Value

$2.97

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

39%

78-123 (201)

38791873984189CTR

Murphy Cassone

Invested

$758.85

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$481.74

Record

48%

898-974 (1872)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Murphy Cassone

Invested

$256.76

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$255.96

Record

54%

1631-1394 (3025)

dips.CTR<$100

Murphy Cassone

Invested

$5.71

Value

$0.57

PnL

-$5.14

Record

42%

204-281 (485)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Murphy Cassone

Invested

$65

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$64.75

Record

64%

158-89 (247)

babybellsCTR<$100

Murphy Cassone

Invested

$62.7

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$62.51

Record

18%

84-374 (458)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Murphy Cassone

Invested

$18.59

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$18.53

Record

53%

5388-4864 (10252)

lryyyCTR<$100

Murphy Cassone

Invested

$10.56

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$10.52

Record

50%

160-161 (321)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Murphy Cassone

Invested

$3.96

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.95

Record

36%

354-629 (983)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Murphy Cassone

Invested

$1.5

Value

PnL

-$1.5

Record

49%

66-68 (134)

Research grade

NeutralDaniel Milavsky at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Daniel Milavsky

11 of 21 top traders (52%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

52% of non-arb traders are on Daniel Milavsky. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMurphy Cassone 67% · 3

Diverging

sniperDaniel Milavsky 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDaniel Milavsky 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedDaniel Milavsky 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Daniel Milavsky 52% · 21

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Daniel Milavsky wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.