Taipei: Daniel Michalski vs August Holmgren

14 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold August Holmgren (67%) · August Holmgren at 100¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 9

Daniel Michalski<1¢August Holmgren>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

August Holmgren

Consensus Traders

August Holmgren 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.3K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

70.9¢ → 100¢

+41% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralAugust Holmgren at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

August Holmgren

14 of 21 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Daniel Michalski0%

August Holmgren100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Daniel Michalski7 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares15,442

Combined PnL-$653.1

August Holmgren14 traders

Total Value$10.9K

Total Shares11,730

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Daniel Michalski — 33%August Holmgren — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NA Nathan8sCTR	Daniel Michalskiavg 22.8¢	$3.3K	$2.9K	-$480.09	13% 3-21 (24)
RN1	August Holmgrenavg 64.6¢	$2.0K	$2.6K	+$563.34	54% 58111-50353 (108464)
38 38791873984189	August Holmgrenavg 68.7¢	$1.9K	$2.4K	+$636.61	47% 12949-14528 (27477)
NO NotJump	August Holmgrenavg 75.6¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$236.67	43% 7723-10448 (18171)
65 6512395314597884	August Holmgrenavg 75.5¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$352.36	52% 2923-2744 (5667)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Daniel Michalskiavg 33.8¢	$2.5K	$1.4K	$-1.2K	58% 48497-34660 (83157)
└ August Holmgren leg	August Holmgrenavg 80¢	$863.52	$998.19	+$134.66
└ Daniel Michalski leg	Daniel Michalskiavg 33.8¢	$1.7K	$370.1	$-1.3K
CA CandleHammerDrums	August Holmgrenavg 66¢	$875.78	$934.37	+$58.59	52% 5697-5265 (10962)
1L 1lovejump	August Holmgrenavg 77.3¢	$438.41	$316.64	+$22.1	53% 675-604 (1279)
FL Flaznorp	August Holmgrenavg 78.1¢	$200.09	$250.47	+$50.38	51% 17602-16613 (34215)
EU Eulhunter	August Holmgrenavg 78.9¢	$159.35	$187.5	+$28.15	54% 5901-4950 (10851)
LA landighertz	August Holmgrenavg 99.9¢	$175.05	$175.14	+$0.09	99% 1159-7 (1166)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	August Holmgrenavg 67.2¢	$129.8	$137.17	+$7.37	52% 14022-12784 (26806)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Daniel Michalskiavg 30¢	$806.76	$124.08	-$182.78	60% 4143-2783 (6926)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Daniel Michalskiavg 40¢	$51.37	$48.8	-$2.57	61% 13840-8746 (22586)
poshposhCTR<$100	Daniel Michalskiavg 8¢	$8.02	$10.52	+$2.51	58% 11420-8276 (19696)
FE ferdinand2<$100	August Holmgrenavg 75¢	$7.5	$8.05	+$0.55	51% 990-958 (1948)
HRTrading<$100	August Holmgrenavg 75.7¢	$6.12	$6.51	+$0.39	53% 6367-5753 (12120)
SC SchruteBucksCTR	Daniel Michalskiavg 34¢	$170	$5.21	+$10	56% 1875-1459 (3334)
tradecraft<$100	August Holmgrenavg 73¢	$3.83	$4.06	+$0.24	51% 6149-5871 (12020)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Daniel Michalskiavg 40¢	$4	$3.8	-$0.2	65% 1808-987 (2795)
0xheavy888<$100	August Holmgrenavg 60¢	$3	$3.05	-$0.03	55% 7454-5978 (13432)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Daniel Michalskiavg 3¢	$0.15	$0.17	+$0.02	47% 10046-11149 (21195)

Nathan8sCTR

Daniel Michalski

Invested

$3,345

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$480.09

Record

13%

3-21 (24)

RN1

August Holmgren

Invested

$2,034.28

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$563.34

Record

54%

58111-50353 (108464)

38791873984189

August Holmgren

Invested

$1,890

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$636.61

Record

47%

12949-14528 (27477)

NotJump

August Holmgren

Invested

$1,773.09

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$236.67

Record

43%

7723-10448 (18171)

6512395314597884

August Holmgren

Invested

$1,569.38

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$352.36

Record

52%

2923-2744 (5667)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Daniel Michalski

Invested

$2,531.74

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

58%

48497-34660 (83157)

Both legs:

August Holmgren$863.5280¢+$134.66

Daniel Michalski$1,668.2233.8¢$-1.3K

CandleHammerDrums

August Holmgren

Invested

$875.78

Value

$934.37

PnL

+$58.59

Record

52%

5697-5265 (10962)

1lovejump

August Holmgren

Invested

$438.41

Value

$316.64

PnL

+$22.1

Record

53%

675-604 (1279)

Flaznorp

August Holmgren

Invested

$200.09

Value

$250.47

PnL

+$50.38

Record

51%

17602-16613 (34215)

Eulhunter

August Holmgren

Invested

$159.35

Value

$187.5

PnL

+$28.15

Record

54%

5901-4950 (10851)

landighertz

August Holmgren

Invested

$175.05

Value

$175.14

PnL

+$0.09

Record

99%

1159-7 (1166)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

August Holmgren

Invested

$129.8

Value

$137.17

PnL

+$7.37

Record

52%

14022-12784 (26806)

thestingsnakeCTR

Daniel Michalski

Invested

$806.76

Value

$124.08

PnL

-$182.78

Record

60%

4143-2783 (6926)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Daniel Michalski

Invested

$51.37

Value

$48.8

PnL

-$2.57

Record

61%

13840-8746 (22586)

poshposhCTR<$100

Daniel Michalski

Invested

$8.02

Value

$10.52

PnL

+$2.51

Record

58%

11420-8276 (19696)

ferdinand2<$100

August Holmgren

Invested

$7.5

Value

$8.05

PnL

+$0.55

Record

51%

990-958 (1948)

HRTrading<$100

August Holmgren

Invested

$6.12

Value

$6.51

PnL

+$0.39

Record

53%

6367-5753 (12120)

SchruteBucksCTR

Daniel Michalski

Invested

$170

Value

$5.21

PnL

+$10

Record

56%

1875-1459 (3334)

tradecraft<$100

August Holmgren

Invested

$3.83

Value

$4.06

PnL

+$0.24

Record

51%

6149-5871 (12020)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Daniel Michalski

Invested

Value

$3.8

PnL

-$0.2

Record

65%

1808-987 (2795)

0xheavy888<$100

August Holmgren

Invested

Value

$3.05

PnL

-$0.03

Record

55%

7454-5978 (13432)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Daniel Michalski

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.17

PnL

+$0.02

Record

47%

10046-11149 (21195)

Research grade

NeutralAugust Holmgren at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

August Holmgren

14 of 21 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that August Holmgren wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.