Charlottesville: Aidan Mayo vs Andres Andrade

10 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Aidan Mayo (56%) · Aidan Mayo at 68¢ · $53K held · ends Nov 14

Aidan Mayo68¢Andres Andrade32¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Aidan Mayo

Consensus Traders

Aidan Mayo 56%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$53.1K

Combined PnL

$-15.3K

Smart Money Entry

96.5¢ → 67.5¢

-30% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralAidan Mayo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Aidan Mayo

10 of 18 top traders (56%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Aidan Mayo68%

Andres Andrade32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Aidan Mayo10 traders

Total Value$37.6K

Total Shares55,719

Combined PnL$-16.2K

Andres Andrade8 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares6,829

Combined PnL+$905.11

Aidan Mayo — 56%Andres Andrade — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18	Aidan Mayoavg 98.6¢	$41.5K	$28.4K	$-13.1K	66% 653-338 (991)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Aidan Mayoavg 96¢	$11.8K	$9.9K	$-1.9K	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
└ Aidan Mayo leg	Aidan Mayoavg 96¢	$11.1K	$7.8K	$-3.3K
└ Andres Andrade leg	Andres Andradeavg 10.3¢	$664.21	$2.1K	+$1.4K
YE yesmate	Aidan Mayoavg 89.3¢	$9.2K	$7.0K	$-2.3K	53% 380-340 (720)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Aidan Mayoavg 88.7¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$334.86	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
└ Andres Andrade leg	Andres Andradeavg 17.9¢	$593.13	$1.1K	+$486.25
└ Aidan Mayo leg	Aidan Mayoavg 88.7¢	$632.64	$481.24	-$151.39
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Andres Andradeavg 9.8¢	$362.5	$1.2K	+$839.82	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
FL Flaznorp	Aidan Mayoavg 90.5¢	$1.3K	$936.49	-$318.15	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Aidan Mayoavg 92.6¢	$1.5K	$895.28	+$322.65	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Andres Andrade leg	Andres Andradeavg 10.5¢	$193.2	$597.86	+$382.59
└ Aidan Mayo leg	Aidan Mayoavg 92.6¢	$408.22	$297.42	-$59.94
XT xtxpleasecallme	Aidan Mayoavg 99.6¢	$999	$676.84	-$322.16	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Aidan Mayoavg 78.8¢	$165.9	$658.41	+$492.51	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
└ Andres Andrade leg	Andres Andradeavg 0.5¢	$8.86	$523.89	+$515.02
└ Aidan Mayo leg	Aidan Mayoavg 78.8¢	$157.03	$134.52	-$22.51
VeryLucky888CTR	Andres Andradeavg 32.6¢	$552.12	$495.12	+$1.61	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
LI LightParadox	Aidan Mayoavg 89.7¢	$419.81	$315.81	-$104	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
0xheavy888CTR	Andres Andradeavg 32¢	$264.31	$268.44	+$4.13	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Aidan Mayoavg 86.5¢	$496.95	$222.62	+$75.55	53% 828-732 (1560)
└ Aidan Mayo leg	Aidan Mayoavg 86.5¢	$164.15	$128.05	+$3.97
└ Andres Andrade leg	Andres Andradeavg 7.9¢	$22.98	$94.56	+$71.58
tradecraft	Aidan Mayoavg 90¢	$256.5	$192.38	-$64.13	51% 6523-6284 (12807)
nigiri99CTR	Andres Andradeavg 33.9¢	$143.98	$138.12	-$5.85	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Andres Andradeavg 11¢	$33	$95.87	+$63.07	60% 4530-3029 (7559)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Aidan Mayoavg 90.4¢	$68.81	$67.26	-$1.55	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Aidan Mayoavg 69¢	$33.1	$33.62	+$0.53	64% 5377-2997 (8374)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Aidan Mayoavg 87.4¢	$21.85	$16.88	-$4.98	57% 19479-14427 (33906)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Andres Andradeavg 33¢	$10.89	$10.72	-$0.17	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
PA pauleta23<$100	Aidan Mayoavg 86¢	$8.59	$6.74	-$1.85	65% 24597-12971 (37568)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Andres Andradeavg 33¢	$4.93	$4.85	-$0.07	48% 3689-3932 (7621)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Andres Andradeavg 11¢	$1.32	$3.9	+$2.58	54% 6333-5398 (11731)

0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$41,493.07

Value

$28.4K

PnL

$-13.1K

Record

66%

653-338 (991)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$11,767.46

Value

$9.9K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

Both legs:

Aidan Mayo$11,103.2596¢$-3.3K

Andres Andrade$664.2110.3¢+$1.4K

yesmate

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$9,234.4

Value

$7.0K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

53%

380-340 (720)

VenusianARB<$100

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$1,225.76

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$334.86

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

Both legs:

Andres Andrade$593.1317.9¢+$486.25

Aidan Mayo$632.6488.7¢-$151.39

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Andres Andrade

Invested

$362.5

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$839.82

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

Flaznorp

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$1,254.64

Value

$936.49

PnL

-$318.15

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$1,497.07

Value

$895.28

PnL

+$322.65

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Andres Andrade$193.210.5¢+$382.59

Aidan Mayo$408.2292.6¢-$59.94

xtxpleasecallme

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$999

Value

$676.84

PnL

-$322.16

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

LimousinARB<$100

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$165.9

Value

$658.41

PnL

+$492.51

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Both legs:

Andres Andrade$8.860.5¢+$515.02

Aidan Mayo$157.0378.8¢-$22.51

VeryLucky888CTR

Andres Andrade

Invested

$552.12

Value

$495.12

PnL

+$1.61

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

LightParadox

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$419.81

Value

$315.81

PnL

-$104

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

0xheavy888CTR

Andres Andrade

Invested

$264.31

Value

$268.44

PnL

+$4.13

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$496.95

Value

$222.62

PnL

+$75.55

Record

53%

828-732 (1560)

Both legs:

Aidan Mayo$164.1586.5¢+$3.97

Andres Andrade$22.987.9¢+$71.58

tradecraft

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$256.5

Value

$192.38

PnL

-$64.13

Record

51%

6523-6284 (12807)

nigiri99CTR

Andres Andrade

Invested

$143.98

Value

$138.12

PnL

-$5.85

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Andres Andrade

Invested

$33

Value

$95.87

PnL

+$63.07

Record

60%

4530-3029 (7559)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$68.81

Value

$67.26

PnL

-$1.55

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$33.1

Value

$33.62

PnL

+$0.53

Record

64%

5377-2997 (8374)

BillBenter2026<$100

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$21.85

Value

$16.88

PnL

-$4.98

Record

57%

19479-14427 (33906)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Andres Andrade

Invested

$10.89

Value

$10.72

PnL

-$0.17

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

pauleta23<$100

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$8.59

Value

$6.74

PnL

-$1.85

Record

65%

24597-12971 (37568)

efntrickCTR<$100

Andres Andrade

Invested

$4.93

Value

$4.85

PnL

-$0.07

Record

48%

3689-3932 (7621)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Andres Andrade

Invested

$1.32

Value

$3.9

PnL

+$2.58

Record

54%

6333-5398 (11731)

Research grade

NeutralAidan Mayo at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Aidan Mayo

10 of 18 top traders (56%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Aidan Mayo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.