Orleans: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

6 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Nicolai Budkov Kjaer (40%) · Nicolai Budkov Kjaer at 58¢ · $125K held · ends Nov 16

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer58¢Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg42¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Consensus Traders

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 40%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$124.7K

Combined PnL

$4.7K

Smart Money Entry

47.7¢ → 58¢

+22% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNicolai Budkov Kjaer at 58%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

6 of 15 top traders (40%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer58%

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer6 traders

Total Value$86.4K

Total Shares146,790

Combined PnL+$15.6K

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg9 traders

Total Value$32.1K

Total Shares80,158

Combined PnL$-10.9K

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer — 40%Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robustmst	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 49.2¢	$63.2K	$75.1K	+$11.9K	10% 5-47 (52)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 49.1¢	$28.6K	$23.0K	$-5.6K	5% 21-408 (429)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 36.8¢	$6.4K	$9.3K	+$3.0K	30% 104-243 (347)
HV HVABCTR	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 62.9¢	$14.7K	$7.9K	$-4.0K	— 6-8 (14)
RN1ARB<$100	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 37¢	$3.1K	$4.1K	+$967.2	54% 230-199 (429)
└ Nicolai Budkov Kjaer leg	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 37¢	$1.9K	$2.9K	+$971.85
└ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 44.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$4.65
UB ubetteruuuu	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 37.2¢	$1.2K	$1.9K	+$701.96	5% 4-73 (77)
WH whosayCTR	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 66¢	$1.3K	$820	-$499.39	— 2-0 (2)
ER Erick2307ARB<$100	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 59.3¢	$1.1K	$629.13	-$236.88	— 2-1 (3)
└ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 59.3¢	$616.04	$462.65	-$238.38
└ Nicolai Budkov Kjaer leg	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 55¢	$164.98	$166.48	+$1.5
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 67.3¢	$679.59	$540.2	-$139.39	25% 84-248 (332)
└ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 67.3¢	$557.8	$360.54	-$197.25
└ Nicolai Budkov Kjaer leg	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 38.3¢	$121.79	$179.65	+$57.86
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 44.6¢	$485.91	$476.3	-$9.61	52% 236-220 (456)
└ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 44.6¢	$382.9	$373.65	-$9.25
└ Nicolai Budkov Kjaer leg	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 56.7¢	$103.01	$102.65	-$0.36
CI cigarettesCTR	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 52.5¢	$262.5	$272.5	+$10	38% 88-145 (233)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 54.9¢	$186.25	$179.92	-$6.33	38% 38-62 (100)
└ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 54.9¢	$129.63	$103.98	-$25.65
└ Nicolai Budkov Kjaer leg	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 41.8¢	$56.62	$75.95	+$19.32
machinelearnedARB<$100	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 54.2¢	$129.4	$121.6	-$7.8	44% 140-177 (317)
└ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 54.2¢	$108.4	$88	-$20.4
└ Nicolai Budkov Kjaer leg	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 35¢	$21	$33.6	+$12.6
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 52.2¢	$133.76	$121.56	-$12.2	54% 31-26 (57)
└ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 52.2¢	$99.61	$77.36	-$22.26
└ Nicolai Budkov Kjaer leg	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 46¢	$34.15	$44.2	+$10.05
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 62.4¢	$81.27	$85.94	+$4.67	25% 84-258 (342)
└ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 62.4¢	$46.36	$51.6	+$5.24
└ Nicolai Budkov Kjaer leg	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 31¢	$34.91	$34.35	-$0.56
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18CTR	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 65.9¢	$2.5K	$55.56	-$759.13	— 6-4 (10)
PA pauleta23<$100	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 47.8¢	$40.11	$50.82	+$10.71	20% 56-219 (275)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 65¢	$53.04	$33.05	-$19.99	24% 81-263 (344)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 31¢	$22.26	$23.34	+$1.08	30% 60-139 (199)
dips.<$100	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 34¢	$9.52	$16.52	+$7	47% 89-101 (190)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 47¢	$13.98	$14.28	+$0.3	22% 46-161 (207)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 66¢	$8.11	$4.85	-$3.26	24% 87-279 (366)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.4	+$0.05	17% 39-184 (223)

robustmst

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$63,200.93

Value

$75.1K

PnL

+$11.9K

Record

10%

5-47 (52)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$28,550.82

Value

$23.0K

PnL

$-5.6K

Record

21-408 (429)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$6,357.34

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

30%

104-243 (347)

HVABCTR

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$14,650.25

Value

$7.9K

PnL

$-4.0K

Record

—

6-8 (14)

RN1ARB<$100

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$3,090.48

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$967.2

Record

54%

230-199 (429)

Both legs:

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer$1,892.5537¢+$971.85

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$1,197.9344.2¢-$4.65

ubetteruuuu

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$1,228.54

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$701.96

Record

4-73 (77)

whosayCTR

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$1,319.39

Value

$820

PnL

-$499.39

Record

—

2-0 (2)

Erick2307ARB<$100

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$1,134.32

Value

$629.13

PnL

-$236.88

Record

—

2-1 (3)

Both legs:

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$616.0459.3¢-$238.38

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer$164.9855¢+$1.5

LightParadoxARB<$100

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$679.59

Value

$540.2

PnL

-$139.39

Record

25%

84-248 (332)

Both legs:

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$557.867.3¢-$197.25

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer$121.7938.3¢+$57.86

FlaznorpARB<$100

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$485.91

Value

$476.3

PnL

-$9.61

Record

52%

236-220 (456)

Both legs:

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$382.944.6¢-$9.25

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer$103.0156.7¢-$0.36

cigarettesCTR

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$262.5

Value

$272.5

PnL

+$10

Record

38%

88-145 (233)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$186.25

Value

$179.92

PnL

-$6.33

Record

38%

38-62 (100)

Both legs:

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$129.6354.9¢-$25.65

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer$56.6241.8¢+$19.32

machinelearnedARB<$100

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$129.4

Value

$121.6

PnL

-$7.8

Record

44%

140-177 (317)

Both legs:

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$108.454.2¢-$20.4

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer$2135¢+$12.6

EulhunterARB<$100

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$133.76

Value

$121.56

PnL

-$12.2

Record

54%

31-26 (57)

Both legs:

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$99.6152.2¢-$22.26

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer$34.1546¢+$10.05

MadridTimeARB<$100

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$81.27

Value

$85.94

PnL

+$4.67

Record

25%

84-258 (342)

Both legs:

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$46.3662.4¢+$5.24

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer$34.9131¢-$0.56

0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18CTR

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$2,500.56

Value

$55.56

PnL

-$759.13

Record

—

6-4 (10)

pauleta23<$100

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$40.11

Value

$50.82

PnL

+$10.71

Record

20%

56-219 (275)

VenusianCTR<$100

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$53.04

Value

$33.05

PnL

-$19.99

Record

24%

81-263 (344)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$22.26

Value

$23.34

PnL

+$1.08

Record

30%

60-139 (199)

dips.<$100

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$9.52

Value

$16.52

PnL

+$7

Record

47%

89-101 (190)

sentrioCTR<$100

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$13.98

Value

$14.28

PnL

+$0.3

Record

22%

46-161 (207)

LimousinCTR<$100

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$8.11

Value

$4.85

PnL

-$3.26

Record

24%

87-279 (366)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0.05

Record

17%

39-184 (223)

Research grade

NeutralNicolai Budkov Kjaer at 58%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

6 of 15 top traders (40%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nicolai Budkov Kjaer wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.2%

58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$66.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.