Lima: Nicolas Jarry vs Maximo Zeitune

13 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Nicolas Jarry (54%) · Nicolas Jarry at 87¢ · $60K held · ends Nov 16

Nicolas Jarry87¢Maximo Zeitune13¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nicolas Jarry

Consensus Traders

Nicolas Jarry 54%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$60.0K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

80.5¢ → 86.5¢

+7% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNicolas Jarry at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nicolas Jarry

13 of 24 top traders (54%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nicolas Jarry87%

Maximo Zeitune14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nicolas Jarry13 traders

Total Value$42.7K

Total Shares44,495

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Maximo Zeitune11 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares12,690

Combined PnL-$454.37

Nicolas Jarry — 54%Maximo Zeitune — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Nicolas Jarry. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Nicolas Jarry 64% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
01 01258787xy48487484545122	Nicolas Jarryavg 80¢	$48.6K	$34.7K	+$1.9K	—
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Nicolas Jarryavg 82.8¢	$7.6K	$7.2K	-$419.11	—
└ Nicolas Jarry leg	Nicolas Jarryavg 82.8¢	$5.1K	$5.2K	+$104.38
└ Maximo Zeitune leg	Maximo Zeituneavg 19.7¢	$2.5K	$2.0K	-$523.49
RN1ARB<$100	Nicolas Jarryavg 84¢	$7.5K	$6.7K	-$780.12	—
└ Nicolas Jarry leg	Nicolas Jarryavg 84¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$25.63
└ Maximo Zeitune leg	Maximo Zeituneavg 20.7¢	$3.2K	$2.4K	-$805.75
VE Venusian	Nicolas Jarryavg 85.2¢	$2.9K	$2.7K	-$255.88	—
SH SharkVision	Nicolas Jarryavg 80.3¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$87.83	—
38 38791873984189	Nicolas Jarryavg 82.2¢	$5.0K	$2.0K	-$151.45	—
tradecraftCTR	Maximo Zeituneavg 19.1¢	$1.1K	$854.21	-$197.78	—
LI LimousinARB<$100	Nicolas Jarryavg 88.2¢	$638.67	$526.64	-$86.71	—
└ Nicolas Jarry leg	Nicolas Jarryavg 88.2¢	$392.66	$385.08	-$8.85
└ Maximo Zeitune leg	Maximo Zeituneavg 20.9¢	$219.43	$141.56	-$77.87
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Maximo Zeituneavg 19.3¢	$630.84	$489.7	-$79.76	—
└ Maximo Zeitune leg	Maximo Zeituneavg 19.3¢	$317.92	$254.68	-$63.24
└ Nicolas Jarry leg	Nicolas Jarryavg 87¢	$241.85	$235.02	-$16.51
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG	Nicolas Jarryavg 81¢	$349.98	$369.57	+$19.59	—
EU Eulhunter	Nicolas Jarryavg 85.9¢	$366.65	$352.16	-$14.5	—
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Nicolas Jarryavg 75¢	$288.5	$305.5	+$17	—
└ Nicolas Jarry leg	Nicolas Jarryavg 75¢	$187.5	$203.75	+$16.25
└ Maximo Zeitune leg	Maximo Zeituneavg 18.4¢	$101	$101.75	+$0.75
TRCMCTR	Maximo Zeituneavg 19.6¢	$411.34	$283.42	-$127.92	—
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Nicolas Jarryavg 83.9¢	$212.3	$213.85	+$1.55	—
alpheclabs2CTR	Maximo Zeituneavg 17¢	$183.6	$199.8	+$16.2	—
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18CTR	Maximo Zeituneavg 19¢	$234.57	$166.67	-$67.9	—
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Maximo Zeituneavg 19.3¢	$262.43	$155.68	-$57.55	—
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Nicolas Jarryavg 82.7¢	$109.38	$108.08	-$1.31	—
LI LightParadoxCTR	Maximo Zeituneavg 20.2¢	$143.92	$103.41	-$40.51	—
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Maximo Zeituneavg 17¢	$85	$92.5	+$7.5	—
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	Maximo Zeituneavg 16.7¢	$74.63	$92.37	+$17.74	—
└ Maximo Zeitune leg	Maximo Zeituneavg 16.7¢	$40.76	$59.9	+$19.14
└ Nicolas Jarry leg	Nicolas Jarryavg 78.7¢	$33.86	$32.47	-$1.4
dips.<$100	Nicolas Jarryavg 73.3¢	$74.45	$83.74	+$9.29	—
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Maximo Zeituneavg 10.7¢	$26.89	$67.79	+$41.43	—
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100	Nicolas Jarryavg 87¢	$59.13	$49.61	-$9.52	—
machinelearned<$100	Nicolas Jarryavg 89¢	$51.6	$47.2	-$3.2	—

01258787xy48487484545122

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$48,622.55

Value

$34.7K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

—

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$7,586.78

Value

$7.2K

PnL

-$419.11

Record

—

Both legs:

Nicolas Jarry$5,108.8282.8¢+$104.38

Maximo Zeitune$2,477.9519.7¢-$523.49

RN1ARB<$100

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$7,496.61

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$780.12

Record

—

Both legs:

Nicolas Jarry$4,305.8484¢+$25.63

Maximo Zeitune$3,190.7720.7¢-$805.75

Venusian

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$2,939.41

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$255.88

Record

—

SharkVision

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$2,007.24

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$87.83

Record

—

38791873984189

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$4,973.96

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$151.45

Record

—

tradecraftCTR

Maximo Zeitune

Invested

$1,051.99

Value

$854.21

PnL

-$197.78

Record

—

LimousinARB<$100

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$638.67

Value

$526.64

PnL

-$86.71

Record

—

Both legs:

Nicolas Jarry$392.6688.2¢-$8.85

Maximo Zeitune$219.4320.9¢-$77.87

MadridTimeARB<$100

Maximo Zeitune

Invested

$630.84

Value

$489.7

PnL

-$79.76

Record

—

Both legs:

Maximo Zeitune$317.9219.3¢-$63.24

Nicolas Jarry$241.8587¢-$16.51

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$349.98

Value

$369.57

PnL

+$19.59

Record

—

Eulhunter

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$366.65

Value

$352.16

PnL

-$14.5

Record

—

cigarettesARB<$100

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$288.5

Value

$305.5

PnL

+$17

Record

—

Both legs:

Nicolas Jarry$187.575¢+$16.25

Maximo Zeitune$10118.4¢+$0.75

TRCMCTR

Maximo Zeitune

Invested

$411.34

Value

$283.42

PnL

-$127.92

Record

—

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$212.3

Value

$213.85

PnL

+$1.55

Record

—

alpheclabs2CTR

Maximo Zeitune

Invested

$183.6

Value

$199.8

PnL

+$16.2

Record

—

0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18CTR

Maximo Zeitune

Invested

$234.57

Value

$166.67

PnL

-$67.9

Record

—

thestingsnakeCTR

Maximo Zeitune

Invested

$262.43

Value

$155.68

PnL

-$57.55

Record

—

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$109.38

Value

$108.08

PnL

-$1.31

Record

—

LightParadoxCTR

Maximo Zeitune

Invested

$143.92

Value

$103.41

PnL

-$40.51

Record

—

GaditimaCTR<$100

Maximo Zeitune

Invested

$85

Value

$92.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

—

thirdt1meARB<$100

Maximo Zeitune

Invested

$74.63

Value

$92.37

PnL

+$17.74

Record

—

Both legs:

Maximo Zeitune$40.7616.7¢+$19.14

Nicolas Jarry$33.8678.7¢-$1.4

dips.<$100

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$74.45

Value

$83.74

PnL

+$9.29

Record

—

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Maximo Zeitune

Invested

$26.89

Value

$67.79

PnL

+$41.43

Record

—

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$59.13

Value

$49.61

PnL

-$9.52

Record

—

machinelearned<$100

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$51.6

Value

$47.2

PnL

-$3.2

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralNicolas Jarry at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nicolas Jarry

13 of 24 top traders (54%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Nicolas Jarry. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Nicolas Jarry 64% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nicolas Jarry wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.