Brisbane 3: Sebastian Gorzny vs Alex Bolt

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Sebastian Gorzny (60%) · Sebastian Gorzny at 55¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 20

Sebastian Gorzny55¢Alex Bolt45¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sebastian Gorzny

Consensus Traders

Sebastian Gorzny 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$0.35

Smart Money Entry

54.2¢ → 54.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralSebastian Gorzny at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sebastian Gorzny

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Sebastian Gorzny55%

Alex Bolt46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sebastian Gorzny6 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares4,491

Combined PnL-$3.28

Alex Bolt4 traders

Total Value$537.37

Total Shares1,078

Combined PnL+$3.63

Sebastian Gorzny — 60%Alex Bolt — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Sebastian Gorzny. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSebastian Gorzny 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedSebastian Gorzny 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sebastian Gorzny 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
00 0000.	Sebastian Gorznyavg 54.7¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$8.17	32% 10-21 (31)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Alex Boltavg 45¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	+$67.66	52% 773-714 (1487)
└ Alex Bolt leg	Alex Boltavg 45¢	$675	$682.5	+$7.5
└ Sebastian Gorzny leg	Sebastian Gorznyavg 51.3¢	$558.48	$593.89	+$60.16
FL FlaznorpCTR	Alex Boltavg 45¢	$258.54	$263.29	+$4.75	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
fyrskenCTR	Alex Boltavg 49¢	$196	$194	-$2	48% 28-30 (58)
LI LightParadox	Sebastian Gorznyavg 49.8¢	$175.41	$179.74	+$4.33	33% 553-1135 (1688)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Alex Boltavg 45¢	$65.25	$65.98	+$0.73	52% 187-174 (361)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Sebastian Gorznyavg 51¢	$52.53	$52.53	+$0	40% 78-117 (195)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Sebastian Gorznyavg 53¢	$27.55	$27.81	+$0.26	42% 291-405 (696)
LI Limousin<$100	Sebastian Gorznyavg 50¢	$14.98	$15.28	+$0.3	32% 534-1112 (1646)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Alex Boltavg 45¢	$13.95	$14.11	+$0.16	49% 1077-1133 (2210)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Sebastian Gorznyavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.55	+$0	38% 492-810 (1302)

0000.

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$2,160

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$8.17

Record

32%

10-21 (31)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Alex Bolt

Invested

$1,694.73

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$67.66

Record

52%

773-714 (1487)

Both legs:

Alex Bolt$67545¢+$7.5

Sebastian Gorzny$558.4851.3¢+$60.16

FlaznorpCTR

Alex Bolt

Invested

$258.54

Value

$263.29

PnL

+$4.75

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

fyrskenCTR

Alex Bolt

Invested

$196

Value

$194

PnL

-$2

Record

48%

28-30 (58)

LightParadox

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$175.41

Value

$179.74

PnL

+$4.33

Record

33%

553-1135 (1688)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Alex Bolt

Invested

$65.25

Value

$65.98

PnL

+$0.73

Record

52%

187-174 (361)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$52.53

Value

$52.53

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

78-117 (195)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$27.55

Value

$27.81

PnL

+$0.26

Record

42%

291-405 (696)

Limousin<$100

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$14.98

Value

$15.28

PnL

+$0.3

Record

32%

534-1112 (1646)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Alex Bolt

Invested

$13.95

Value

$14.11

PnL

+$0.16

Record

49%

1077-1133 (2210)

ameisgoat11<$100

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

492-810 (1302)

Research grade

NeutralSebastian Gorzny at 55%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Sebastian Gorzny

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Sebastian Gorzny. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSebastian Gorzny 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedSebastian Gorzny 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sebastian Gorzny 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sebastian Gorzny wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.