Villa Maria: Tomas Farjat vs Federico Aguilar Cardozo
10 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Federico Aguilar Cardozo (40%) · Federico Aguilar Cardozo at 100¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Federico Aguilar Cardozo
25
Federico Aguilar Cardozo 40%
1 arb excluded
$16.2K
-$123.97
86.8¢ → 100¢
+15% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralFederico Aguilar Cardozo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 25 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01 01258787xy48487484545122 | Federico Aguilar Cardozoavg 88.1¢ | $6.5K | $7.4K | +$882.87 | 65% 299-160 (459) |
ER Erick2307 | Federico Aguilar Cardozoavg 99.9¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | +$1.53 | 46% 158-186 (344) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Tomas Farjatavg 17.1¢ | $2.4K | $2.2K | -$172.49 | 54% 58154-50376 (108530) |
| └ Tomas Farjat leg | Tomas Farjatavg 17.1¢ | $1.7K | $1.4K | -$301.94 | |
| └ Federico Aguilar Cardozo leg | Federico Aguilar Cardozoavg 73¢ | $729.73 | $859.18 | +$129.45 | |
NO NotJump | Federico Aguilar Cardozoavg 72.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$174.75 | 44% 9904-12850 (22754) |
38 38791873984189 | Federico Aguilar Cardozoavg 49.7¢ | $975.81 | $828.68 | +$236.73 | 47% 13029-14600 (27629) |
ES EscobarzzzzCTR | Tomas Farjatavg 32.7¢ | $952.81 | $714.26 | -$238.55 | 38% 45-73 (118) |
TH thestingsnakeCTR | Tomas Farjatavg 47.9¢ | $1.0K | $185.5 | -$452.25 | 60% 4155-2786 (6941) |
 0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18<$100 | Federico Aguilar Cardozoavg 96.4¢ | $96.39 | $99.96 | +$3.57 | 66% 585-304 (889) |
 TRCM<$100 | Federico Aguilar Cardozoavg 64¢ | $64 | $83.5 | +$19.5 | 55% 3977-3206 (7183) |
 nigiri99CTR | Tomas Farjatavg 45¢ | $180.9 | $58.29 | -$122.61 | 46% 7288-8597 (15885) |
BE berlinskies<$100 | Federico Aguilar Cardozoavg 86.1¢ | $49.99 | $58.03 | +$8.04 | 58% 6038-4391 (10429) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100 | Federico Aguilar Cardozoavg 88.4¢ | $49.34 | $55.75 | +$6.42 | 52% 14038-12792 (26830) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Tomas Farjatavg 32¢ | $162.56 | $53.34 | -$109.22 | 51% 17621-16621 (34242) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Tomas Farjatavg 40¢ | $343.99 | $43.95 | -$91.18 | 58% 43617-31727 (75344) |
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100 | Tomas Farjatavg 26¢ | $10.54 | $11.55 | +$1.01 | 52% 5708-5272 (10980) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Tomas Farjatavg 32¢ | $10.64 | $11.47 | +$0.83 | 53% 6378-5764 (12142) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Federico Aguilar Cardozoavg 87.1¢ | $9.96 | $9.9 | -$0.06 | 66% 23638-11934 (35572) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Tomas Farjatavg 28¢ | $6.81 | $6.93 | +$0.12 | 50% 19821-20164 (39985) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Federico Aguilar Cardozoavg 95¢ | $4.75 | $4.18 | -$0.57 | 35% 16978-31455 (48433) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Tomas Farjatavg 32¢ | $1.6 | $1.72 | +$0.12 | 51% 1005-965 (1970) |
DI dips.CTR | Tomas Farjatavg 14¢ | $270.72 | $0.97 | -$269.75 | 46% 7320-8504 (15824) |
SM smithagentCTR | Tomas Farjatavg 10.4¢ | $111.58 | $0.53 | -$111.05 | 48% 3291-3584 (6875) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Tomas Farjatavg 0.1¢ | $1 | $0.5 | -$0.5 | 59% 30985-21705 (52690) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Tomas Farjatavg 13¢ | $34.42 | $0.13 | -$34.28 | 58% 11442-8290 (19732) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Tomas Farjatavg 14¢ | $22.73 | $0.08 | -$22.65 | 47% 10059-11176 (21235) |
Invested
$6,544.57
Value
$7.4K
PnL
+$882.87
Record
65%
299-160 (459)
Invested
$3,056.26
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$1.53
Record
46%
158-186 (344)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$2,400.14
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$172.49
Record
54%
58154-50376 (108530)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,092.25
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$174.75
Record
44%
9904-12850 (22754)
Invested
$975.81
Value
$828.68
PnL
+$236.73
Record
47%
13029-14600 (27629)
Invested
$952.81
Value
$714.26
PnL
-$238.55
Record
38%
45-73 (118)
Invested
$1,001.5
Value
$185.5
PnL
-$452.25
Record
60%
4155-2786 (6941)
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18<$100Invested
$96.39
Value
$99.96
PnL
+$3.57
Record
66%
585-304 (889)
TRCM<$100Invested
$64
Value
$83.5
PnL
+$19.5
Record
55%
3977-3206 (7183)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$180.9
Value
$58.29
PnL
-$122.61
Record
46%
7288-8597 (15885)
Invested
$49.99
Value
$58.03
PnL
+$8.04
Record
58%
6038-4391 (10429)
Invested
$49.34
Value
$55.75
PnL
+$6.42
Record
52%
14038-12792 (26830)
Invested
$162.56
Value
$53.34
PnL
-$109.22
Record
51%
17621-16621 (34242)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$343.99
Value
$43.95
PnL
-$91.18
Record
58%
43617-31727 (75344)
Invested
$10.54
Value
$11.55
PnL
+$1.01
Record
52%
5708-5272 (10980)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$10.64
Value
$11.47
PnL
+$0.83
Record
53%
6378-5764 (12142)
Invested
$9.96
Value
$9.9
PnL
-$0.06
Record
66%
23638-11934 (35572)
Invested
$6.81
Value
$6.93
PnL
+$0.12
Record
50%
19821-20164 (39985)
Invested
$4.75
Value
$4.18
PnL
-$0.57
Record
35%
16978-31455 (48433)
Invested
$1.6
Value
$1.72
PnL
+$0.12
Record
51%
1005-965 (1970)
Invested
$270.72
Value
$0.97
PnL
-$269.75
Record
46%
7320-8504 (15824)
Invested
$111.58
Value
$0.53
PnL
-$111.05
Record
48%
3291-3584 (6875)
Invested
$1
Value
$0.5
PnL
-$0.5
Record
59%
30985-21705 (52690)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$34.42
Value
$0.13
PnL
-$34.28
Record
58%
11442-8290 (19732)
Invested
$22.73
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$22.65
Record
47%
10059-11176 (21235)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
01258787xy48487484545122
Federico Aguilar Cardozo — $7.4K
Erick2307
Federico Aguilar Cardozo — $3.1K
RN1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
NotJump
Federico Aguilar Cardozo — $1.3K
38791873984189
Federico Aguilar Cardozo — $828.68
Escobarzzzz
CTRTomas Farjat — $714.26
thestingsnake
CTRTomas Farjat — $185.5
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18
Federico Aguilar Cardozo — $99.96
TRCM
Federico Aguilar Cardozo — $83.5
nigiri99
CTRTomas Farjat — $58.29