Knoxville: Liam Draxl vs Clement Chidekh

14 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Clement Chidekh (52%) · Clement Chidekh at 68¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 20

Liam Draxl33¢Clement Chidekh67¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Clement Chidekh

Consensus Traders

Clement Chidekh 52%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.9K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

71.5¢ → 67.5¢

-6% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralClement Chidekh at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clement Chidekh

14 of 27 top traders (52%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Liam Draxl33%

Clement Chidekh68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clement Chidekh14 traders

Total Value$11.7K

Total Shares15,959

Combined PnL+$121.05

Liam Draxl13 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares19,657

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Clement Chidekh — 52%Liam Draxl — 48%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on Clement Chidekh. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpClement Chidekh 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLiam Draxl 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedClement Chidekh 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Clement Chidekh 55% · 20

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Clement Chidekhavg 75.5¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$122.86	50% 3673-3617 (7290)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Clement Chidekhavg 65¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$104.14	51% 3819-3610 (7429)
KK KkunnCTR	Liam Draxlavg 35¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$0	14% 24-150 (174)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Clement Chidekhavg 78.6¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$13.25	48% 425-457 (882)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Liam Draxlavg 25¢	$908.56	$1.3K	+$417.94	36% 763-1361 (2124)
38 38791873984189	Clement Chidekhavg 70.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$110.09	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Liam Draxlavg 23.1¢	$2.0K	$1.1K	+$531.4	50% 2262-2219 (4481)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Liam Draxlavg 44.9¢	$1.3K	$990.67	+$6.01	53% 634-568 (1202)
└ Clement Chidekh leg	Clement Chidekhavg 56¢	$509.27	$709.28	+$298.59
└ Liam Draxl leg	Liam Draxlavg 44.9¢	$573.97	$281.39	-$292.58
LI LimousinCTR	Liam Draxlavg 19.2¢	$380.05	$724.06	+$344.01	35% 736-1380 (2116)
0X 0x7750cdd6207bda401911ad3657253af46491a3f3CTR	Liam Draxlavg 24¢	$450	$684.38	+$234.38	— 1-14 (15)
TH thirdt1me	Clement Chidekhavg 73.7¢	$906.26	$617.84	-$99.56	47% 214-243 (457)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Liam Draxlavg 24.2¢	$434.72	$592.76	+$158.04	35% 750-1386 (2136)
0xheavy888	Clement Chidekhavg 65¢	$492.97	$591.57	+$98.59	53% 390-340 (730)
FL Flaznorp	Clement Chidekhavg 65.1¢	$423.22	$438.69	+$15.47	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Clement Chidekhavg 73.9¢	$379.77	$402.36	+$22.58	56% 3980-3112 (7092)
BA babybells	Clement Chidekhavg 71.9¢	$173.8	$147.38	-$13.23	29% 187-458 (645)
TH thestingsnake	Clement Chidekhavg 71.1¢	$228.78	$138.69	-$21.58	33% 204-421 (625)
VE Venusian	Clement Chidekhavg 71.8¢	$118.49	$117.38	-$1.11	34% 736-1405 (2141)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Liam Draxlavg 29.3¢	$316.71	$113.23	+$30.86	38% 113-184 (297)
└ Liam Draxl leg	Liam Draxlavg 29.3¢	$52.82	$67.6	+$15.74
└ Clement Chidekh leg	Clement Chidekhavg 72.3¢	$52.74	$45.63	+$15.13
machinelearnedARB<$100	Liam Draxlavg 30¢	$84.05	$88.48	+$4.43	45% 871-1082 (1953)
└ Liam Draxl leg	Liam Draxlavg 30¢	$43.45	$48.58	+$5.13
└ Clement Chidekh leg	Clement Chidekhavg 67.7¢	$40.6	$39.9	-$0.7
DV dv-pmCTR	Liam Draxlavg 35¢	$117.46	$67.12	-$50.34	40% 17-26 (43)
VeryLucky888<$100	Clement Chidekhavg 64¢	$65.33	$35.71	+$7.47	53% 1030-921 (1951)
TRCMCTR<$100	Liam Draxlavg 31.4¢	$30.42	$35.35	+$4.93	15% 78-444 (522)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Liam Draxlavg 28¢	$37.9	$29.81	-$8.08	50% 169-168 (337)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Liam Draxlavg 35¢	$25.83	$24.72	-$1.11	41% 137-199 (336)

6512395314597884

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$3,783.4

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$122.86

Record

50%

3673-3617 (7290)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$2,707.52

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$104.14

Record

51%

3819-3610 (7429)

KkunnCTR

Liam Draxl

Invested

$2,450

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$0

Record

14%

24-150 (174)

CandleHammerDrums

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$1,446.22

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$13.25

Record

48%

425-457 (882)

MadridTimeCTR

Liam Draxl

Invested

$908.56

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$417.94

Record

36%

763-1361 (2124)

38791873984189

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$1,106.16

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$110.09

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Liam Draxl

Invested

$2,015.57

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$531.4

Record

50%

2262-2219 (4481)

NotJumpARB<$100

Liam Draxl

Invested

$1,267.94

Value

$990.67

PnL

+$6.01

Record

53%

634-568 (1202)

Both legs:

Clement Chidekh$509.2756¢+$298.59

Liam Draxl$573.9744.9¢-$292.58

LimousinCTR

Liam Draxl

Invested

$380.05

Value

$724.06

PnL

+$344.01

Record

35%

736-1380 (2116)

0x7750cdd6207bda401911ad3657253af46491a3f3CTR

Liam Draxl

Invested

$450

Value

$684.38

PnL

+$234.38

Record

—

1-14 (15)

thirdt1me

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$906.26

Value

$617.84

PnL

-$99.56

Record

47%

214-243 (457)

LightParadoxCTR

Liam Draxl

Invested

$434.72

Value

$592.76

PnL

+$158.04

Record

35%

750-1386 (2136)

0xheavy888

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$492.97

Value

$591.57

PnL

+$98.59

Record

53%

390-340 (730)

Flaznorp

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$423.22

Value

$438.69

PnL

+$15.47

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$379.77

Value

$402.36

PnL

+$22.58

Record

56%

3980-3112 (7092)

babybells

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$173.8

Value

$147.38

PnL

-$13.23

Record

29%

187-458 (645)

thestingsnake

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$228.78

Value

$138.69

PnL

-$21.58

Record

33%

204-421 (625)

Venusian

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$118.49

Value

$117.38

PnL

-$1.11

Record

34%

736-1405 (2141)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Liam Draxl

Invested

$316.71

Value

$113.23

PnL

+$30.86

Record

38%

113-184 (297)

Both legs:

Liam Draxl$52.8229.3¢+$15.74

Clement Chidekh$52.7472.3¢+$15.13

machinelearnedARB<$100

Liam Draxl

Invested

$84.05

Value

$88.48

PnL

+$4.43

Record

45%

871-1082 (1953)

Both legs:

Liam Draxl$43.4530¢+$5.13

Clement Chidekh$40.667.7¢-$0.7

dv-pmCTR

Liam Draxl

Invested

$117.46

Value

$67.12

PnL

-$50.34

Record

40%

17-26 (43)

VeryLucky888<$100

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$65.33

Value

$35.71

PnL

+$7.47

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

TRCMCTR<$100

Liam Draxl

Invested

$30.42

Value

$35.35

PnL

+$4.93

Record

15%

78-444 (522)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Liam Draxl

Invested

$37.9

Value

$29.81

PnL

-$8.08

Record

50%

169-168 (337)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Liam Draxl

Invested

$25.83

Value

$24.72

PnL

-$1.11

Record

41%

137-199 (336)

Research grade

NeutralClement Chidekh at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Clement Chidekh

14 of 27 top traders (52%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on Clement Chidekh. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpClement Chidekh 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLiam Draxl 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedClement Chidekh 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Clement Chidekh 55% · 20

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clement Chidekh wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.