ATP World Tour Finals Doubles, Todd Woodbridge Group (Doubles): Arevalo/Pavic vs Arribage/Olivetti

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Arevalo/Pavic (67%) · Arevalo/Pavic at 100¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 22

Arevalo/Pavic>99¢Arribage/Olivetti<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Arevalo/Pavic

Consensus Traders

Arevalo/Pavic 67%

Total Value

$15.3K

Combined PnL

$3.3K

Smart Money Entry

57.4¢ → 100¢

+74% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralArevalo/Pavic at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Arevalo/Pavic

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Arevalo/Pavic100%

Arribage/Olivetti0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Arevalo/Pavic6 traders

Total Value$15.2K

Total Shares15,834

Combined PnL+$4.0K

Arribage/Olivetti3 traders

Total Value$95.48

Total Shares1,502

Combined PnL-$695.66

Arevalo/Pavic — 67%Arribage/Olivetti — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Arevalo/Pavic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpArevalo/Pavic 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrArevalo/Pavic 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Arevalo/Pavic 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Arevalo/Pavicavg 54.3¢	$5.5K	$9.3K	+$3.8K	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
FL Flaznorp	Arevalo/Pavicavg 53.8¢	$4.5K	$4.7K	+$202.35	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
PV pvc975	Arevalo/Pavicavg 99.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0.53	98% 513-11 (524)
CI cigarettes	Arevalo/Pavicavg 72¢	$108.16	$141.19	+$33.03	53% 7546-6651 (14197)
SE sentrio<$100	Arevalo/Pavicavg 72.3¢	$40.08	$52.11	+$12.04	41% 1195-1702 (2897)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Arribage/Olivettiavg 49¢	$366.21	$44.84	-$321.37	41% 166-240 (406)
SL SlickRick123CTR	Arribage/Olivettiavg 48¢	$319.03	$39.88	-$279.15	38% 500-824 (1324)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Arevalo/Pavicavg 52.1¢	$18.8	$26.78	+$7.98	83% 991-206 (1197)
38 38791873984189CTR	Arribage/Olivettiavg 12.5¢	$438.86	$10.76	-$95.13	48% 3997-4384 (8381)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Arevalo/Pavic

Invested

$5,475.07

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

Flaznorp

Arevalo/Pavic

Invested

$4,468.85

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$202.35

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

pvc975

Arevalo/Pavic

Invested

$1,060.16

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0.53

Record

98%

513-11 (524)

cigarettes

Arevalo/Pavic

Invested

$108.16

Value

$141.19

PnL

+$33.03

Record

53%

7546-6651 (14197)

sentrio<$100

Arevalo/Pavic

Invested

$40.08

Value

$52.11

PnL

+$12.04

Record

41%

1195-1702 (2897)

mouzsynapseCTR

Arribage/Olivetti

Invested

$366.21

Value

$44.84

PnL

-$321.37

Record

41%

166-240 (406)

SlickRick123CTR

Arribage/Olivetti

Invested

$319.03

Value

$39.88

PnL

-$279.15

Record

38%

500-824 (1324)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Arevalo/Pavic

Invested

$18.8

Value

$26.78

PnL

+$7.98

Record

83%

991-206 (1197)

38791873984189CTR

Arribage/Olivetti

Invested

$438.86

Value

$10.76

PnL

-$95.13

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

Research grade

NeutralArevalo/Pavic at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Arevalo/Pavic

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Arevalo/Pavic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpArevalo/Pavic 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrArevalo/Pavic 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Arevalo/Pavic 67% · 9

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Arevalo/Pavic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.