Lima: Hugo Dellien vs Tristan Boyer

4 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Tristan Boyer (16%) · Tristan Boyer at 59¢ · $133K held · ends Nov 16

Hugo Dellien42¢Tristan Boyer58¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tristan Boyer

Consensus Traders

Tristan Boyer 16%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$133.2K

Combined PnL

$-3.7K

Smart Money Entry

54.4¢ → 58.5¢

+8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralTristan Boyer at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tristan Boyer

4 of 25 top traders (16%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Hugo Dellien42%

Tristan Boyer59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tristan Boyer4 traders

Total Value$48.0K

Total Shares129,468

Combined PnL$-22.3K

Hugo Dellien21 traders

Total Value$83.5K

Total Shares128,821

Combined PnL+$18.6K

Tristan Boyer — 16%Hugo Dellien — 84%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

19% of non-arb traders are on Tristan Boyer. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHugo Dellien 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpHugo Dellien 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrHugo Dellien 73% · 15

Diverging

Hand-pickedHugo Dellien 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Hugo Dellien 80% · 25

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robustmst	Tristan Boyeravg 54.7¢	$68.8K	$45.9K	$-22.9K	10% 5-47 (52)
RN1CTR	Hugo Dellienavg 48.2¢	$19.6K	$24.0K	+$4.3K	54% 230-196 (426)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Hugo Dellienavg 43.7¢	$13.3K	$19.3K	+$6.0K	5% 21-403 (424)
alpheclabs2CTR	Hugo Dellienavg 44.4¢	$10.1K	$14.5K	+$4.2K	47% 37-42 (79)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Hugo Dellienavg 52.8¢	$8.1K	$9.0K	+$893.81	48% 128-136 (264)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Hugo Dellienavg 46.1¢	$3.9K	$5.0K	+$1.1K	0% 0-31 (31)
LI LimousinCTR	Hugo Dellienavg 57.6¢	$2.7K	$3.0K	+$253.91	24% 86-278 (364)
VE VenusianCTR	Hugo Dellienavg 48.7¢	$1.8K	$2.3K	+$534.42	24% 81-262 (343)
OM omnibus-076daa	Tristan Boyeravg 42.9¢	$1.5K	$2.1K	+$559.09	31% 60-136 (196)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Hugo Dellienavg 46.6¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$400.19	52% 236-219 (455)
tradecraftCTR	Hugo Dellienavg 46.1¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$137.35	18% 39-174 (213)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Hugo Dellienavg 47.6¢	$691.96	$907.86	+$215.9	24% 83-258 (341)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Hugo Dellienavg 46.9¢	$697.87	$904.82	+$206.95	25% 84-246 (330)
TRCMCTR	Hugo Dellienavg 47¢	$1.0K	$904.7	-$120.48	14% 20-120 (140)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Tristan Boyeravg 33.8¢	$603.9	$670.02	+$93.68	49% 374-391 (765)
└ Tristan Boyer leg	Tristan Boyeravg 33.8¢	$405.75	$438.21	+$36.45
└ Hugo Dellien leg	Hugo Dellienavg 47.8¢	$174.57	$231.81	+$57.24
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Hugo Dellienavg 51.1¢	$772.45	$623.09	+$69.64	25% 34-104 (138)
└ Hugo Dellien leg	Hugo Dellienavg 51.1¢	$515.14	$418.34	-$31.11
└ Tristan Boyer leg	Tristan Boyeravg 29.7¢	$104	$204.75	+$100.75
CI cigarettesCTR	Hugo Dellienavg 44.3¢	$396.45	$531	+$134.55	38% 88-145 (233)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Tristan Boyeravg 52.7¢	$372.72	$367.55	-$5.17	37% 37-62 (99)
└ Tristan Boyer leg	Tristan Boyeravg 52.7¢	$193.59	$214.89	+$21.3
└ Hugo Dellien leg	Hugo Dellienavg 48.7¢	$179.13	$152.66	-$26.46
EU EulhunterCTR	Hugo Dellienavg 46.4¢	$188.04	$257.17	+$48.89	54% 31-26 (57)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Hugo Dellienavg 44¢	$38.72	$55.88	+$11.88	60% 37-25 (62)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Hugo Dellienavg 47¢	$20	$27.02	+$7.02	21% 56-215 (271)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Hugo Dellienavg 59.8¢	$38.84	$26.97	-$11.86	13% 27-174 (201)
FL flatbarrelCTR	Hugo Dellienavg 46¢	$920	$22.49	+$445.1	9% 12-117 (129)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Hugo Dellienavg 50¢	$10	$12.7	+$2.7	44% 139-175 (314)
SC SchruteBucksCTR	Hugo Dellienavg 46¢	$414	$10.1	+$117.11	21% 38-144 (182)

robustmst

Tristan Boyer

Invested

$68,831.07

Value

$45.9K

PnL

$-22.9K

Record

10%

5-47 (52)

RN1CTR

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$19,634.49

Value

$24.0K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

54%

230-196 (426)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$13,300.8

Value

$19.3K

PnL

+$6.0K

Record

21-403 (424)

alpheclabs2CTR

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$10,118.56

Value

$14.5K

PnL

+$4.2K

Record

47%

37-42 (79)

6512395314597884CTR

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$8,149.39

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$893.81

Record

48%

128-136 (264)

thirdt1meCTR

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$3,935.74

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

0-31 (31)

LimousinCTR

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$2,716.75

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$253.91

Record

24%

86-278 (364)

VenusianCTR

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$1,769.75

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$534.42

Record

24%

81-262 (343)

omnibus-076daa

Tristan Boyer

Invested

$1,531.78

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$559.09

Record

31%

60-136 (196)

FlaznorpCTR

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$1,107.71

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$400.19

Record

52%

236-219 (455)

tradecraftCTR

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$1,386.5

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$137.35

Record

18%

39-174 (213)

MadridTimeCTR

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$691.96

Value

$907.86

PnL

+$215.9

Record

24%

83-258 (341)

LightParadoxCTR

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$697.87

Value

$904.82

PnL

+$206.95

Record

25%

84-246 (330)

TRCMCTR

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$1,025.18

Value

$904.7

PnL

-$120.48

Record

14%

20-120 (140)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Tristan Boyer

Invested

$603.9

Value

$670.02

PnL

+$93.68

Record

49%

374-391 (765)

Both legs:

Tristan Boyer$405.7533.8¢+$36.45

Hugo Dellien$174.5747.8¢+$57.24

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$772.45

Value

$623.09

PnL

+$69.64

Record

25%

34-104 (138)

Both legs:

Hugo Dellien$515.1451.1¢-$31.11

Tristan Boyer$10429.7¢+$100.75

cigarettesCTR

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$396.45

Value

$531

PnL

+$134.55

Record

38%

88-145 (233)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Tristan Boyer

Invested

$372.72

Value

$367.55

PnL

-$5.17

Record

37%

37-62 (99)

Both legs:

Tristan Boyer$193.5952.7¢+$21.3

Hugo Dellien$179.1348.7¢-$26.46

EulhunterCTR

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$188.04

Value

$257.17

PnL

+$48.89

Record

54%

31-26 (57)

lryyyCTR<$100

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$38.72

Value

$55.88

PnL

+$11.88

Record

60%

37-25 (62)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$20

Value

$27.02

PnL

+$7.02

Record

21%

56-215 (271)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$38.84

Value

$26.97

PnL

-$11.86

Record

13%

27-174 (201)

flatbarrelCTR

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$920

Value

$22.49

PnL

+$445.1

Record

12-117 (129)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$10

Value

$12.7

PnL

+$2.7

Record

44%

139-175 (314)

SchruteBucksCTR

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$414

Value

$10.1

PnL

+$117.11

Record

21%

38-144 (182)

Research grade

NeutralTristan Boyer at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Tristan Boyer

4 of 25 top traders (16%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

19% of non-arb traders are on Tristan Boyer. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHugo Dellien 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpHugo Dellien 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrHugo Dellien 73% · 15

Diverging

Hand-pickedHugo Dellien 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Hugo Dellien 80% · 25

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tristan Boyer wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.