Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Tom Gentzsch, while the market favors Martin Damm (76%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bratislava 2: Martin Damm vs Tom Gentzsch

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Tom Gentzsch (82%) · Tom Gentzsch at 25¢ · $525 held · ends Nov 9

Martin Damm76¢Tom Gentzsch24¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Tom Gentzsch

Consensus Traders

Tom Gentzsch 82%

Total Value

$525.31

Combined PnL

$29.64

Smart Money Entry

23.3¢ → 24.5¢

+5% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidTom Gentzsch at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tom Gentzsch

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Martin Damm 76%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Martin Damm76%

Tom Gentzsch25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tom Gentzsch9 traders

Total Value$369.39

Total Shares1,522

Combined PnL+$21.87

Martin Damm2 traders

Total Value$155.92

Total Shares207

Combined PnL+$7.78

Tom Gentzsch — 82%Martin Damm — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Tom Gentzsch. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Martin Damm) and the top 1000 (10 on Tom Gentzsch) disagree here.

whaleMartin Damm 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpTom Gentzsch 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTom Gentzsch 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedMartin Damm 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Tom Gentzsch 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LilybaeumCTR	Tom Gentzschavg 24.2¢	$115.72	$115	+$6.47	61% 14032-9038 (23070)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Tom Gentzschavg 24¢	$96.24	$98.25	+$2.01	46% 1301-1520 (2821)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Martin Dammavg 70¢	$87.11	$93.95	+$6.84	54% 510-439 (949)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Tom Gentzschavg 24¢	$84	$85.75	+$1.75	48% 59224-63218 (122442)
0xheavy888<$100	Martin Dammavg 74.4¢	$61.04	$61.97	+$0.93	56% 7713-6183 (13896)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Tom Gentzschavg 24.4¢	$27.63	$27.13	-$0.5	51% 1089-1037 (2126)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Tom Gentzschavg 8¢	$4.72	$14.16	+$9.44	20% 2580-10222 (12802)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Tom Gentzschavg 25¢	$49.27	$12.07	-$0.25	39% 1335-2099 (3434)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Tom Gentzschavg 24.8¢	$7.72	$7.61	-$0.11	74% 2420-861 (3281)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Tom Gentzschavg 10¢	$2.29	$5.5	+$3.21	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Tom Gentzschavg 24.9¢	$4.07	$3.92	-$0.15	51% 24202-22938 (47140)

LilybaeumCTR

Tom Gentzsch

Invested

$115.72

Value

$115

PnL

+$6.47

Record

61%

14032-9038 (23070)

NM-PCTR<$100

Tom Gentzsch

Invested

$96.24

Value

$98.25

PnL

+$2.01

Record

46%

1301-1520 (2821)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Martin Damm

Invested

$87.11

Value

$93.95

PnL

+$6.84

Record

54%

510-439 (949)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Tom Gentzsch

Invested

$84

Value

$85.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

48%

59224-63218 (122442)

0xheavy888<$100

Martin Damm

Invested

$61.04

Value

$61.97

PnL

+$0.93

Record

56%

7713-6183 (13896)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Tom Gentzsch

Invested

$27.63

Value

$27.13

PnL

-$0.5

Record

51%

1089-1037 (2126)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Tom Gentzsch

Invested

$4.72

Value

$14.16

PnL

+$9.44

Record

20%

2580-10222 (12802)

GC-PCTR<$100

Tom Gentzsch

Invested

$49.27

Value

$12.07

PnL

-$0.25

Record

39%

1335-2099 (3434)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Tom Gentzsch

Invested

$7.72

Value

$7.61

PnL

-$0.11

Record

74%

2420-861 (3281)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Tom Gentzsch

Invested

$2.29

Value

$5.5

PnL

+$3.21

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Tom Gentzsch

Invested

$4.07

Value

$3.92

PnL

-$0.15

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

Research grade

AvoidTom Gentzsch at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Tom Gentzsch

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Martin Damm 76%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Tom Gentzsch. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Martin Damm) and the top 1000 (10 on Tom Gentzsch) disagree here.

whaleMartin Damm 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpTom Gentzsch 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTom Gentzsch 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedMartin Damm 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Tom Gentzsch 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tom Gentzsch wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.4%

24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$278.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

378.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.