Rolex Paris Masters: Mattia Bellucci vs Arthur Rinderknech

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Mattia Bellucci (58%) · Mattia Bellucci at 57¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11

Mattia Bellucci57¢Arthur Rinderknech43¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Mattia Bellucci

Consensus Traders

Mattia Bellucci 58%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$39.47

Smart Money Entry

57.7¢ → 57.5¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralMattia Bellucci at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mattia Bellucci

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mattia Bellucci57%

Arthur Rinderknech43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mattia Bellucci7 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,662

Combined PnL-$47.18

Arthur Rinderknech5 traders

Total Value$874.52

Total Shares2,034

Combined PnL+$7.7

Mattia Bellucci — 58%Arthur Rinderknech — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Mattia Bellucci. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMattia Bellucci 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrMattia Bellucci 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedMattia Bellucci 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Mattia Bellucci 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
K5 k56	Mattia Bellucciavg 58.2¢	$1.0K	$982.46	-$39.04	57% 896-663 (1559)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear	Mattia Bellucciavg 58.2¢	$561.8	$555.34	-$6.46	46% 405-478 (883)
2D 0x2d6a...8addCTR	Arthur Rinderknechavg 43¢	$365.5	$365.5	+$4.25	47% 1304-1499 (2803)
CF 0xcf73...0215CTR	Arthur Rinderknechavg 43¢	$365.5	$365.5	+$4.25	46% 1283-1491 (2774)
38 38791873984189	Mattia Bellucciavg 55.5¢	$387.17	$349.13	+$3.58	47% 14510-16080 (30590)
OM omnibus-076daa	Mattia Bellucciavg 58.2¢	$114.28	$109.91	-$4.37	50% 20329-20686 (41015)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Arthur Rinderknechavg 43¢	$103.1	$103.1	+$0	61% 13978-9022 (23000)
0xheavy888<$100	Mattia Bellucciavg 56.7¢	$94.61	$94.2	-$0.41	55% 7643-6144 (13787)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Arthur Rinderknechavg 44.2¢	$28.75	$27.95	-$0.8	52% 1078-991 (2069)
SE sentrio<$100	Mattia Bellucciavg 57¢	$27.19	$26.72	-$0.48	50% 25310-25028 (50338)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Arthur Rinderknechavg 43¢	$12.47	$12.47	+$0	51% 23562-22316 (45878)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Mattia Bellucciavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.8	+$0	52% 8537-7773 (16310)

k56

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$1,021.5

Value

$982.46

PnL

-$39.04

Record

57%

896-663 (1559)

SunflowaRebuildYear

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$561.8

Value

$555.34

PnL

-$6.46

Record

46%

405-478 (883)

0x2d6a...8addCTR

Arthur Rinderknech

Invested

$365.5

Value

$365.5

PnL

+$4.25

Record

47%

1304-1499 (2803)

0xcf73...0215CTR

Arthur Rinderknech

Invested

$365.5

Value

$365.5

PnL

+$4.25

Record

46%

1283-1491 (2774)

38791873984189

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$387.17

Value

$349.13

PnL

+$3.58

Record

47%

14510-16080 (30590)

omnibus-076daa

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$114.28

Value

$109.91

PnL

-$4.37

Record

50%

20329-20686 (41015)

LilybaeumCTR

Arthur Rinderknech

Invested

$103.1

Value

$103.1

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

13978-9022 (23000)

0xheavy888<$100

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$94.61

Value

$94.2

PnL

-$0.41

Record

55%

7643-6144 (13787)

VenusianCTR<$100

Arthur Rinderknech

Invested

$28.75

Value

$27.95

PnL

-$0.8

Record

52%

1078-991 (2069)

sentrio<$100

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$27.19

Value

$26.72

PnL

-$0.48

Record

50%

25310-25028 (50338)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Arthur Rinderknech

Invested

$12.47

Value

$12.47

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

23562-22316 (45878)

ameisgoat11<$100

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

8537-7773 (16310)

Research grade

NeutralMattia Bellucci at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Mattia Bellucci

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Mattia Bellucci. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMattia Bellucci 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrMattia Bellucci 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedMattia Bellucci 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Mattia Bellucci 55% · 11

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mattia Bellucci wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.