Hersonissos 3: Adrian Andreev vs Raul Brancaccio

17 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold Adrian Andreev (55%) · Adrian Andreev at 59¢ · $212K held · ends Nov 19

Adrian Andreev59¢Raul Brancaccio41¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Adrian Andreev

Consensus Traders

Adrian Andreev 55%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$212.0K

Combined PnL

$6.0K

Smart Money Entry

54.1¢ → 58.5¢

+8% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralAdrian Andreev at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Adrian Andreev

17 of 31 top traders (55%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Adrian Andreev59%

Raul Brancaccio42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raul Brancaccio14 traders

Total Value$87.5K

Total Shares181,729

Combined PnL+$3.9K

Adrian Andreev17 traders

Total Value$111.2K

Total Shares192,593

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Raul Brancaccio — 45%Adrian Andreev — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR crazyoddsloverCTR	Raul Brancaccioavg 46¢	$77.3K	$81.6K	+$4.3K	— 8-8 (16)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Adrian Andreevavg 53.7¢	$32.2K	$30.9K	$-1.3K	51% 3766-3569 (7335)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Adrian Andreevavg 53.9¢	$29.0K	$30.0K	+$964.45	51% 2043-1952 (3995)
RN1	Adrian Andreevavg 54¢	$27.0K	$28.9K	+$1.9K	56% 4466-3442 (7908)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Adrian Andreevavg 45.6¢	$4.6K	$5.4K	+$774.32	50% 3533-3499 (7032)
└ Adrian Andreev leg	Adrian Andreevavg 45.6¢	$2.9K	$3.7K	+$813.67
└ Raul Brancaccio leg	Raul Brancaccioavg 42.5¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$39.34
0X 0xe1C08abF3f7D340682A42811250223393DF7eCF1-1781642316918	Adrian Andreevavg 56.3¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	+$13.92	49% 19-20 (39)
LI Limousin	Adrian Andreevavg 56.1¢	$5.0K	$4.5K	+$37.56	32% 522-1096 (1618)
MA MadridTime	Adrian Andreevavg 52¢	$3.8K	$4.3K	+$480.4	33% 544-1092 (1636)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239	Adrian Andreevavg 58¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$35.3	33% 14-28 (42)
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100	Raul Brancaccioavg 47.5¢	$4.4K	$2.1K	+$0.94	47% 325-361 (686)
└ Raul Brancaccio leg	Raul Brancaccioavg 47.5¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$41.16
└ Adrian Andreev leg	Adrian Andreevavg 50.5¢	$556.17	$610.86	+$42.11
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Adrian Andreevavg 51.2¢	$2.4K	$2.1K	+$5.65	54% 417-355 (772)
└ Adrian Andreev leg	Adrian Andreevavg 51.2¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$149.93
└ Raul Brancaccio leg	Raul Brancaccioavg 47.2¢	$994.44	$874.77	-$144.28
AC Accomplished-FrameworkCTR	Raul Brancaccioavg 45¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$69.61	48% 10-11 (21)
VE Venusian	Adrian Andreevavg 54.8¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	+$11.81	32% 528-1110 (1638)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Raul Brancaccioavg 49.2¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$26.9	56% 3893-3059 (6952)
└ Adrian Andreev leg	Adrian Andreevavg 48.2¢	$713.61	$866.81	+$153.2
└ Raul Brancaccio leg	Raul Brancaccioavg 49.2¢	$805.65	$679.35	-$126.3
0X 0x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8CTR	Raul Brancaccioavg 47.1¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$70.16	— 4-3 (7)
FL Flaznorp	Adrian Andreevavg 53.3¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$253.08	51% 2503-2397 (4900)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Raul Brancaccioavg 45.9¢	$2.8K	$994.27	+$5.24	48% 2064-2270 (4334)
└ Raul Brancaccio leg	Raul Brancaccioavg 45.9¢	$714.37	$691.98	+$1.72
└ Adrian Andreev leg	Adrian Andreevavg 54.7¢	$298.01	$302.3	+$3.53
0X 0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8CTR	Raul Brancaccioavg 46¢	$971.97	$940.28	-$31.69	— 7-0 (7)
0X 0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfeshCTR	Raul Brancaccioavg 46¢	$951.29	$920.27	-$31.02	7% 32-455 (487)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Adrian Andreevavg 56.2¢	$552	$541.5	-$10.5	42% 643-890 (1533)
└ Adrian Andreev leg	Adrian Andreevavg 56.2¢	$379.5	$374.63	-$4.87
└ Raul Brancaccio leg	Raul Brancaccioavg 46¢	$172.5	$166.88	-$5.63
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Adrian Andreevavg 49.5¢	$349.09	$352.73	+$3.64	50% 131-132 (263)
└ Adrian Andreev leg	Adrian Andreevavg 49.5¢	$248.69	$258.64	+$9.95
└ Raul Brancaccio leg	Raul Brancaccioavg 51.8¢	$100.4	$94.09	-$6.31
LI LightParadoxCTR	Raul Brancaccioavg 65¢	$502.32	$320.71	-$181.61	33% 541-1119 (1660)
TH thestingsnake	Adrian Andreevavg 49.3¢	$407.66	$304.31	+$94.65	29% 164-394 (558)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0ARB<$100	Adrian Andreevavg 53.1¢	$262	$247	+$15	41% 243-356 (599)
└ Adrian Andreev leg	Adrian Andreevavg 53.1¢	$175.08	$193.05	+$17.05
└ Raul Brancaccio leg	Raul Brancaccioavg 44.4¢	$57.68	$53.95	-$2.05
TH thirdt1meCTR	Raul Brancaccioavg 43.2¢	$492.9	$169.84	+$102.95	45% 154-192 (346)

crazyoddsloverCTR

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$77,338.53

Value

$81.6K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

—

8-8 (16)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Adrian Andreev

Invested

$32,200

Value

$30.9K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

51%

3766-3569 (7335)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Adrian Andreev

Invested

$29,000.3

Value

$30.0K

PnL

+$964.45

Record

51%

2043-1952 (3995)

RN1

Adrian Andreev

Invested

$26,962.86

Value

$28.9K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

56%

4466-3442 (7908)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Adrian Andreev

Invested

$4,635.79

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$774.32

Record

50%

3533-3499 (7032)

Both legs:

Adrian Andreev$2,880.9345.6¢+$813.67

Raul Brancaccio$1,754.8542.5¢-$39.34

0xe1C08abF3f7D340682A42811250223393DF7eCF1-1781642316918

Adrian Andreev

Invested

$4,786

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$13.92

Record

49%

19-20 (39)

Limousin

Adrian Andreev

Invested

$4,981.89

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$37.56

Record

32%

522-1096 (1618)

MadridTime

Adrian Andreev

Invested

$3,841.05

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$480.4

Record

33%

544-1092 (1636)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239

Adrian Andreev

Invested

$4,250

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$35.3

Record

33%

14-28 (42)

CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$4,447.58

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$0.94

Record

47%

325-361 (686)

Both legs:

Raul Brancaccio$1,568.4947.5¢-$41.16

Adrian Andreev$556.1750.5¢+$42.11

NotJumpARB<$100

Adrian Andreev

Invested

$2,360.31

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$5.65

Record

54%

417-355 (772)

Both legs:

Adrian Andreev$1,049.3251.2¢+$149.93

Raul Brancaccio$994.4447.2¢-$144.28

Accomplished-FrameworkCTR

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$2,088.29

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$69.61

Record

48%

10-11 (21)

Venusian

Adrian Andreev

Invested

$1,658.12

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$11.81

Record

32%

528-1110 (1638)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$1,519.26

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$26.9

Record

56%

3893-3059 (6952)

Both legs:

Adrian Andreev$713.6148.2¢+$153.2

Raul Brancaccio$805.6549.2¢-$126.3

0x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8CTR

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$1,264.96

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$70.16

Record

—

4-3 (7)

Flaznorp

Adrian Andreev

Invested

$1,432.92

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$253.08

Record

51%

2503-2397 (4900)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$2,792.25

Value

$994.27

PnL

+$5.24

Record

48%

2064-2270 (4334)

Both legs:

Raul Brancaccio$714.3745.9¢+$1.72

Adrian Andreev$298.0154.7¢+$3.53

0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8CTR

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$971.97

Value

$940.28

PnL

-$31.69

Record

—

7-0 (7)

0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfeshCTR

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$951.29

Value

$920.27

PnL

-$31.02

Record

32-455 (487)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Adrian Andreev

Invested

$552

Value

$541.5

PnL

-$10.5

Record

42%

643-890 (1533)

Both legs:

Adrian Andreev$379.556.2¢-$4.87

Raul Brancaccio$172.546¢-$5.63

EulhunterARB<$100

Adrian Andreev

Invested

$349.09

Value

$352.73

PnL

+$3.64

Record

50%

131-132 (263)

Both legs:

Adrian Andreev$248.6949.5¢+$9.95

Raul Brancaccio$100.451.8¢-$6.31

LightParadoxCTR

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$502.32

Value

$320.71

PnL

-$181.61

Record

33%

541-1119 (1660)

thestingsnake

Adrian Andreev

Invested

$407.66

Value

$304.31

PnL

+$94.65

Record

29%

164-394 (558)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0ARB<$100

Adrian Andreev

Invested

$262

Value

$247

PnL

+$15

Record

41%

243-356 (599)

Both legs:

Adrian Andreev$175.0853.1¢+$17.05

Raul Brancaccio$57.6844.4¢-$2.05

thirdt1meCTR

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$492.9

Value

$169.84

PnL

+$102.95

Record

45%

154-192 (346)

Research grade

NeutralAdrian Andreev at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Adrian Andreev

17 of 31 top traders (55%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Adrian Andreev wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.