Deportivo Moron vs. CA Colegiales: O/U 1.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (64%) · Over at 100¢ · $679 held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 64%

Total Value

$679.09

Combined PnL

-$425.75

Smart Money Entry

92¢ → 100¢

+9% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$655.19

Total Shares661

Combined PnL+$24.39

Under4 traders

Total Value$23.9

Total Shares2,291

Combined PnL-$450.14

Over — 64%Under — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (11 on Over) disagree here.

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 96¢	$192	$198	+$6	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 79¢	$127.33	$159.64	+$32.31	52% 2510-2301 (4811)
dips.	Overavg 97.2¢	$112.72	$114.84	+$2.12	48% 1314-1407 (2721)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 95.5¢	$79.87	$61.83	-$16.31	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 96¢	$57.82	$59.63	+$1.81	43% 435-570 (1005)
SM smithagent	Overavg 97¢	$276.05	$46.4	-$2.74	46% 888-1048 (1936)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 19¢	$403.94	$21.26	-$382.68	38% 1353-2203 (3556)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Overavg 91¢	$13.65	$14.85	+$1.2	52% 249-233 (482)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$66	$1.5	-$64.5	49% 1349-1428 (2777)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$2.36	$1.04	-$1.32	53% 1923-1675 (3598)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$1.73	$0.1	-$1.64	36% 649-1179 (1828)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$192

Value

$198

PnL

+$6

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$127.33

Value

$159.64

PnL

+$32.31

Record

52%

2510-2301 (4811)

dips.

Over

Invested

$112.72

Value

$114.84

PnL

+$2.12

Record

48%

1314-1407 (2721)

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$79.87

Value

$61.83

PnL

-$16.31

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$57.82

Value

$59.63

PnL

+$1.81

Record

43%

435-570 (1005)

smithagent

Over

Invested

$276.05

Value

$46.4

PnL

-$2.74

Record

46%

888-1048 (1936)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$403.94

Value

$21.26

PnL

-$382.68

Record

38%

1353-2203 (3556)

WagerWizard<$100

Over

Invested

$13.65

Value

$14.85

PnL

+$1.2

Record

52%

249-233 (482)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$64.5

Record

49%

1349-1428 (2777)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.36

Value

$1.04

PnL

-$1.32

Record

53%

1923-1675 (3598)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.73

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$1.64

Record

36%

649-1179 (1828)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (11 on Over) disagree here.

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.