Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (65%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Deportivo Moron win on 2026-11-15?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 36¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Yes36¢No64¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$72.15

Smart Money Entry

44¢ → 35.5¢

-19% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$597.83

Total Shares1,684

Combined PnL-$142.48

No6 traders

Total Value$543.36

Total Shares840

Combined PnL+$70.33

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 54.9¢	$710.61	$719.33	+$8.72	52% 2510-2301 (4811)
└ No leg	Noavg 54.9¢	$456.64	$536.11	+$79.47
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49.2¢	$253.97	$183.22	-$70.75
rayvanmechelenCTR	Yesavg 44¢	$703	$567.19	-$135.81	17% 62-300 (362)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 44.8¢	$416.56	$372.51	-$44.06	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 44.8¢	$271.83	$215.56	-$56.27
└ No leg	Noavg 59.5¢	$144.73	$156.95	+$12.22
VeryLucky888	Noavg 55.8¢	$309.46	$341.72	+$45.44	53% 1923-1675 (3598)
LI Limousin	Noavg 57¢	$119.7	$135.45	+$15.75	38% 1353-2203 (3556)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Noavg 56¢	$92.32	$91.75	-$0.57	56% 672-523 (1195)
└ No leg	Noavg 56¢	$47.6	$54.83	+$7.23
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 43¢	$44.72	$36.92	-$7.8
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 56¢	$28	$32.25	+$4.25	35% 485-917 (1402)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Noavg 59¢	$22.47	$24.57	+$2.09	52% 249-233 (482)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$21.69	$17.11	-$4.58	48% 2576-2780 (5356)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$15.62	$13.52	-$2.09	49% 1349-1428 (2777)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 53¢	$5.3	$7.9	+$2.6	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 56¢	$1.27	$1.47	+$0.19	43% 561-753 (1314)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$710.61

Value

$719.33

PnL

+$8.72

Record

52%

2510-2301 (4811)

Both legs:

No$456.6454.9¢+$79.47

Yes$253.9749.2¢-$70.75

rayvanmechelenCTR

Yes

Invested

$703

Value

$567.19

PnL

-$135.81

Record

17%

62-300 (362)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$416.56

Value

$372.51

PnL

-$44.06

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

Both legs:

Yes$271.8344.8¢-$56.27

No$144.7359.5¢+$12.22

VeryLucky888

Invested

$309.46

Value

$341.72

PnL

+$45.44

Record

53%

1923-1675 (3598)

Limousin

Invested

$119.7

Value

$135.45

PnL

+$15.75

Record

38%

1353-2203 (3556)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Invested

$92.32

Value

$91.75

PnL

-$0.57

Record

56%

672-523 (1195)

Both legs:

No$47.656¢+$7.23

Yes$44.7243¢-$7.8

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$28

Value

$32.25

PnL

+$4.25

Record

35%

485-917 (1402)

WagerWizard<$100

Invested

$22.47

Value

$24.57

PnL

+$2.09

Record

52%

249-233 (482)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.69

Value

$17.11

PnL

-$4.58

Record

48%

2576-2780 (5356)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.62

Value

$13.52

PnL

-$2.09

Record

49%

1349-1428 (2777)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$5.3

Value

$7.9

PnL

+$2.6

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$1.27

Value

$1.47

PnL

+$0.19

Record

43%

561-753 (1314)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 36%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.