Will Deportivo Madryn vs. CD Maipu end in a draw?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 86¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Yes14¢No86¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$376.9

Smart Money Entry

63.5¢ → 86¢

+35% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,466

Combined PnL+$364.39

Yes1 trader

Total Value$23.36

Total Shares45

Combined PnL+$12.51

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SL SlickRick123	Noavg 80.5¢	$519.43	$554.74	+$35.32	38% 500-824 (1324)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000	Noavg 0.5¢	$1.2	$218.4	+$217.2	29% 96-237 (333)
0X 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283	Noavg 91¢	$222.04	$212.4	-$9.64	33% 42-87 (129)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0	Noavg 17¢	$21.25	$113.75	+$92.5	46% 486-574 (1060)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Noavg 76.3¢	$72.32	$86.23	+$13.91	51% 202-192 (394)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 79.9¢	$48.8	$48.57	-$0.23	38% 3843-6310 (10153)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 84.5¢	$27.29	$39.37	+$12.09	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.1¢	$10.85	$23.36	+$12.51	38% 1375-2208 (3583)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 78¢	$19.5	$22.75	+$3.25	52% 2510-2301 (4811)

SlickRick123

Invested

$519.43

Value

$554.74

PnL

+$35.32

Record

38%

500-824 (1324)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000

Invested

$1.2

Value

$218.4

PnL

+$217.2

Record

29%

96-237 (333)

0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283

Invested

$222.04

Value

$212.4

PnL

-$9.64

Record

33%

42-87 (129)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0

Invested

$21.25

Value

$113.75

PnL

+$92.5

Record

46%

486-574 (1060)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

Invested

$72.32

Value

$86.23

PnL

+$13.91

Record

51%

202-192 (394)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$48.8

Value

$48.57

PnL

-$0.23

Record

38%

3843-6310 (10153)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$27.29

Value

$39.37

PnL

+$12.09

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.85

Value

$23.36

PnL

+$12.51

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$19.5

Value

$22.75

PnL

+$3.25

Record

52%

2510-2301 (4811)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.