Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
CA Atlanta vs. CA Estudiantes: O/U 1.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $389 held · ended Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 50%
1 arb excluded
$388.63
$49.04
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 64¢ | $235.49 | $185.33 | -$50.15 | 49% 3959-4107 (8066) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 64¢ | $132.87 | $133.91 | +$1.04 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 70.8¢ | $102.62 | $51.42 | -$51.19 | |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 36¢ | $74.74 | $94.46 | +$19.72 | 36% 477-850 (1327) |
 poshposh<$100 | Overavg 28¢ | $33.64 | $65.48 | +$31.84 | 49% 1169-1236 (2405) |
WA WagerWizard<$100 | Overavg 96¢ | $12.8 | $13.32 | +$0.53 | 41% 147-210 (357) |
 dips.<$100 | Overavg 97¢ | $9.7 | $9.95 | +$0.25 | 47% 993-1122 (2115) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $10.65 | $8.6 | -$2.05 | 53% 2162-1905 (4067) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $9 | $8.19 | -$0.81 | 37% 1002-1720 (2722) |
 RN1<$100 | Overavg 64¢ | $3.2 | $3.23 | +$0.02 | 55% 5402-4371 (9773) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 4¢ | $0.53 | $0.07 | -$0.47 | 37% 1063-1796 (2859) |
Invested
$235.49
Value
$185.33
PnL
-$50.15
Record
49%
3959-4107 (8066)
Both legs:
Invested
$74.74
Value
$94.46
PnL
+$19.72
Record
36%
477-850 (1327)
poshposh<$100Invested
$33.64
Value
$65.48
PnL
+$31.84
Record
49%
1169-1236 (2405)
Invested
$12.8
Value
$13.32
PnL
+$0.53
Record
41%
147-210 (357)
dips.<$100Invested
$9.7
Value
$9.95
PnL
+$0.25
Record
47%
993-1122 (2115)
Invested
$10.65
Value
$8.6
PnL
-$2.05
Record
53%
2162-1905 (4067)
Invested
$9
Value
$8.19
PnL
-$0.81
Record
37%
1002-1720 (2722)
RN1<$100Invested
$3.2
Value
$3.23
PnL
+$0.02
Record
55%
5402-4371 (9773)
Invested
$0.53
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$0.47
Record
37%
1063-1796 (2859)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.