Will CA Tucumán win on 2026-11-06?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 7

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.3K

Combined PnL

$3.5K

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 100¢

+91% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares10,765

Combined PnL+$4.2K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares6,827

Combined PnL-$751.87

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 58.9¢	$5.4K	$7.7K	+$2.3K	51% 26669-25270 (51939)
RN1	Noavg 30.6¢	$825.02	$2.7K	+$1.9K	53% 61934-54221 (116155)
oieshfn345CTR	Yesavg 44.4¢	$2.7K	$2.2K	-$499.08	57% 2086-1544 (3630)
ZaiZoiBeleCTR	Yesavg 80.4¢	$3.1K	$1.5K	-$184.02	79% 5343-1378 (6721)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 25.2¢	$794.51	$853.65	+$59.14	50% 28752-28575 (57327)
└ No leg	Noavg 45.6¢	$330.92	$642.35	+$311.43
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.2¢	$463.59	$211.3	-$252.29
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 71¢	$262.67	$295.09	+$32.43	52% 14617-13288 (27905)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Noavg 82.4¢	$35.48	$28.99	-$6.49	59% 3031-2120 (5151)
RO Rocky31<$100	Noavg 74¢	$30.58	$12	+$5.55	75% 1958-663 (2621)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 74¢	$1.5	$0.29	-$1.21	66% 24379-12452 (36831)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$6.95	$0.09	-$6.86	53% 24124-21175 (45299)
dips.CTR<$100	Yesavg 83.7¢	$61.94	$0.04	-$61.91	47% 10855-12427 (23282)

Flaznorp

Invested

$5,406.18

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

51%

26669-25270 (51939)

RN1

Invested

$825.02

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

53%

61934-54221 (116155)

oieshfn345CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,697.29

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$499.08

Record

57%

2086-1544 (3630)

ZaiZoiBeleCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,070.07

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$184.02

Record

79%

5343-1378 (6721)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$794.51

Value

$853.65

PnL

+$59.14

Record

50%

28752-28575 (57327)

Both legs:

No$330.9245.6¢+$311.43

Yes$463.5925.2¢-$252.29

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$262.67

Value

$295.09

PnL

+$32.43

Record

52%

14617-13288 (27905)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Invested

$35.48

Value

$28.99

PnL

-$6.49

Record

59%

3031-2120 (5151)

Rocky31<$100

Invested

$30.58

Value

$12

PnL

+$5.55

Record

75%

1958-663 (2621)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$1.5

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$1.21

Record

66%

24379-12452 (36831)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.95

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$6.86

Record

53%

24124-21175 (45299)

dips.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.94

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$61.91

Record

47%

10855-12427 (23282)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.