Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Another NVIDIA board member announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 24¢ · $457 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

Total Value

$457.47

Combined PnL

-$70.97

Smart Money Entry

48.3¢ → 23.5¢

-51% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$339.31

Total Shares443

Combined PnL+$36.04

Yes3 traders

Total Value$118.16

Total Shares492

Combined PnL-$107.01

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
paddaa	Noavg 70.5¢	$152.29	$165.16	+$12.86	60% 503-336 (839)
StupidMonkeyyyCTR	Yesavg 55¢	$183.15	$79.92	-$103.23	— 10-7 (17)
0x9112edc7d8a99ce2d688b8e1c6ab889f30d1642<$100	Noavg 49.5¢	$49.5	$77	+$27.5	— 8-6 (14)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 77¢	$46.2	$45.9	-$0.3	43% 10-13 (23)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 83¢	$28.22	$26.01	-$2.21	10% 9-79 (88)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Noavg 82¢	$27.06	$25.25	-$1.81	8% 8-97 (105)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 30.6¢	$144.81	$21.44	+$6.72	40% 3403-5074 (8477)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$27.3	$16.8	-$10.5	53% 6404-5641 (12045)

paddaa

Invested

$152.29

Value

$165.16

PnL

+$12.86

Record

60%

503-336 (839)

StupidMonkeyyyCTR

Yes

Invested

$183.15

Value

$79.92

PnL

-$103.23

Record

—

10-7 (17)

0x9112edc7d8a99ce2d688b8e1c6ab889f30d1642<$100

Invested

$49.5

Value

$77

PnL

+$27.5

Record

—

8-6 (14)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$46.2

Value

$45.9

PnL

-$0.3

Record

43%

10-13 (23)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$28.22

Value

$26.01

PnL

-$2.21

Record

10%

9-79 (88)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Invested

$27.06

Value

$25.25

PnL

-$1.81

Record

8-97 (105)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$144.81

Value

$21.44

PnL

+$6.72

Record

40%

3403-5074 (8477)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.3

Value

$16.8

PnL

-$10.5

Record

53%

6404-5641 (12045)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.2%

23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$296.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

396.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.