Uganda vs. Botswana: O/U 2.5
8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (73%) · Over at 76¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Over
11
Over 73%
$2.5K
$503.75
54¢ → 76¢
+41% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 61.1¢ | $1.2K | $1.5K | +$304.75 | 49% 3821-3983 (7804) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 37.3¢ | $319.92 | $547.64 | +$227.72 | 53% 2085-1830 (3915) |
 poshposh | Overavg 74¢ | $111 | $117 | +$6 | 49% 1117-1185 (2302) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 36.7¢ | $112.34 | $113.92 | +$2.57 | 53% 1351-1180 (2531) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $83.55 | $81.65 | -$1.9 | 36% 933-1644 (2577) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Overavg 73¢ | $64.24 | $68.64 | +$4.4 | 45% 805-991 (1796) |
 MaoZeDonKCTR | Underavg 47¢ | $100 | $52.13 | -$47.87 | 56% 35-28 (63) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 37¢ | $17.98 | $25.19 | +$7.21 | 35% 440-800 (1240) |
MO mouzsynapse<$100 | Overavg 36¢ | $19.99 | $20.82 | +$0.83 | 40% 117-177 (294) |
 RN1<$100 | Overavg 36¢ | $5.27 | $5.34 | +$0.07 | 55% 5363-4304 (9667) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Underavg 63¢ | $3.8 | $3.77 | -$0.03 | 46% 2653-3138 (5791) |
Invested
$1,155.77
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$304.75
Record
49%
3821-3983 (7804)
Invested
$319.92
Value
$547.64
PnL
+$227.72
Record
53%
2085-1830 (3915)
poshposhInvested
$111
Value
$117
PnL
+$6
Record
49%
1117-1185 (2302)
VeryLucky888Invested
$112.34
Value
$113.92
PnL
+$2.57
Record
53%
1351-1180 (2531)
Invested
$83.55
Value
$81.65
PnL
-$1.9
Record
36%
933-1644 (2577)
Invested
$64.24
Value
$68.64
PnL
+$4.4
Record
45%
805-991 (1796)
MaoZeDonKCTRInvested
$100
Value
$52.13
PnL
-$47.87
Record
56%
35-28 (63)
Invested
$17.98
Value
$25.19
PnL
+$7.21
Record
35%
440-800 (1240)
Invested
$19.99
Value
$20.82
PnL
+$0.83
Record
40%
117-177 (294)
RN1<$100Invested
$5.27
Value
$5.34
PnL
+$0.07
Record
55%
5363-4304 (9667)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$3.77
PnL
-$0.03
Record
46%
2653-3138 (5791)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.