Tunisia vs. Libya: O/U 1.5

4 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Over (24%) · Over at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 13

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 24%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

81.8¢ → 100¢

+22% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 17 top traders (24%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares4,893

Combined PnL-$43.75

Under13 traders

Total Value$5.17

Total Shares4,670

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Over — 24%Under — 76%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

24% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (16 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 92% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
95 95de	Overavg 75¢	$2.3K	$3.0K	+$748.5	— 8-8 (16)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 91.3¢	$2.3K	$1.5K	-$796.46	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Overavg 99.9¢	$331.29	$331.45	+$0.17	39% 3489-5413 (8902)
RN1<$100	Overavg 71¢	$9.94	$13.99	+$4.05	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$6.66	$2.82	-$3.84	46% 2104-2463 (4567)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 26.3¢	$316.8	$0.6	-$316.2	35% 750-1386 (2136)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 23¢	$219.14	$0.48	-$218.67	36% 763-1361 (2124)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 23.5¢	$165.72	$0.35	-$165.37	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 25.2¢	$99.96	$0.2	-$99.76	34% 736-1405 (2141)
dips.CTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$3.24	$0.16	-$3.08	46% 741-865 (1606)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 27.5¢	$78.2	$0.14	-$78.06	39% 37-59 (96)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$55.7	$0.12	-$55.58	36% 326-587 (913)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$2.39	$0.12	-$2.27	43% 507-662 (1169)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$38.46	$0.08	-$38.38	35% 736-1380 (2116)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 24.2¢	$34.57	$0.07	-$34.5	49% 1669-1706 (3375)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$0.81	$0.03	-$0.79	53% 1030-921 (1951)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$2.67	$0.01	-$2.67	41% 91-133 (224)

95de

Over

Invested

$2,250

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$748.5

Record

—

8-8 (16)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$2,344.62

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$796.46

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

xtxpleasecallme

Over

Invested

$331.29

Value

$331.45

PnL

+$0.17

Record

39%

3489-5413 (8902)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$9.94

Value

$13.99

PnL

+$4.05

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

suntoriCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.66

Value

$2.82

PnL

-$3.84

Record

46%

2104-2463 (4567)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$316.8

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$316.2

Record

35%

750-1386 (2136)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$219.14

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$218.67

Record

36%

763-1361 (2124)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$165.72

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$165.37

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$99.96

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$99.76

Record

34%

736-1405 (2141)

dips.CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.24

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$3.08

Record

46%

741-865 (1606)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$78.2

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$78.06

Record

39%

37-59 (96)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$55.7

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$55.58

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

smithagentCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.39

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$2.27

Record

43%

507-662 (1169)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$38.46

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$38.38

Record

35%

736-1380 (2116)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$34.57

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$34.5

Record

49%

1669-1706 (3375)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.81

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.79

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.67

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.67

Record

41%

91-133 (224)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 17 top traders (24%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

24% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (16 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 92% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.