Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Tunisia vs. Libya: 1st Half O/U 0.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $262 held · ended Nov 13

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

Total Value

$262.27

Combined PnL

-$821.47

Smart Money Entry

56.1¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$151.4

Total Shares260

Combined PnL+$53.31

Under7 traders

Total Value$110.87

Total Shares1,682

Combined PnL-$874.77

Over — 42%Under — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

58% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
poshposh	Overavg 12.6¢	$13.21	$104.23	+$91.03	46% 781-902 (1683)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 60.3¢	$268.65	$103.65	-$164.99	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
SM smithagent<$100	Overavg 16¢	$3.84	$23.99	+$20.15	43% 507-662 (1169)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 65¢	$76.44	$14.11	-$62.33	48% 677-745 (1422)
dips.<$100	Overavg 16¢	$1.36	$8.47	+$7.11	46% 741-864 (1605)
RN1CTR	Underavg 63.5¢	$175.67	$3.43	-$172.24	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 49¢	$180.13	$1.84	-$178.29	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 49¢	$173.27	$1.77	-$171.5	35% 735-1379 (2114)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 65¢	$3.25	$0.6	-$2.65	56% 307-245 (552)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Underavg 47.2¢	$83.8	$0.09	-$83.71	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
DA dashattackerCTR	Underavg 81.4¢	$101.43	$0.06	-$101.37	63% 271-157 (428)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$2.69	$0.03	-$2.66	35% 749-1385 (2134)

poshposh

Over

Invested

$13.21

Value

$104.23

PnL

+$91.03

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$268.65

Value

$103.65

PnL

-$164.99

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

smithagent<$100

Over

Invested

$3.84

Value

$23.99

PnL

+$20.15

Record

43%

507-662 (1169)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

$76.44

Value

$14.11

PnL

-$62.33

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$1.36

Value

$8.47

PnL

+$7.11

Record

46%

741-864 (1605)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$175.67

Value

$3.43

PnL

-$172.24

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$180.13

Value

$1.84

PnL

-$178.29

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$173.27

Value

$1.77

PnL

-$171.5

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$3.25

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$2.65

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

suntoriCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$83.8

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$83.71

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

dashattackerCTR

Under

Invested

$101.43

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$101.37

Record

63%

271-157 (428)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.69

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.66

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

58% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.