Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Senegal vs. Sudan: O/U 4.5

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

47.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$708.34

Total Shares1,651

Combined PnL-$189.25

Under8 traders

Total Value$434.52

Total Shares3,198

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (13 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 54¢	$815.11	$603.73	-$211.38	56% 4529-3502 (8031)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 53.6¢	$604.03	$501.39	-$102.64	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.6¢	$508.32	$379.6	-$128.72
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.2¢	$95.71	$121.79	+$26.08
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 44¢	$202.82	$276.85	+$74.03	32% 565-1192 (1757)
SL SlickRick123CTR	Underavg 75¢	$145.5	$116.4	-$29.1	29% 206-510 (716)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Overavg 83.3¢	$66.66	$79.97	+$13.31	17% 38-183 (221)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 76¢	$33.82	$26.7	-$7.12	48% 590-645 (1235)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 12.1¢	$5.02	$16.64	+$11.62	55% 1693-1391 (3084)
NO NotJump<$100	Overavg 54¢	$10.8	$8	-$2.8	55% 499-416 (915)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$4.62	$6.6	+$1.98	44% 431-541 (972)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Underavg 73¢	$3.65	$3	-$0.65	43% 374-496 (870)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$2.45	$3	+$0.55	33% 585-1187 (1772)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 46¢	$1.1K	$1.24	$-1.1K	33% 563-1169 (1732)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 85¢	$1.03	$0.73	-$0.3	46% 485-564 (1049)

RN1

Over

Invested

$815.11

Value

$603.73

PnL

-$211.38

Record

56%

4529-3502 (8031)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$604.03

Value

$501.39

PnL

-$102.64

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

Both legs:

Over$508.3253.6¢-$128.72

Under$95.7147.2¢+$26.08

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$202.82

Value

$276.85

PnL

+$74.03

Record

32%

565-1192 (1757)

SlickRick123CTR

Under

Invested

$145.5

Value

$116.4

PnL

-$29.1

Record

29%

206-510 (716)

WagerWizard<$100

Over

Invested

$66.66

Value

$79.97

PnL

+$13.31

Record

17%

38-183 (221)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.82

Value

$26.7

PnL

-$7.12

Record

48%

590-645 (1235)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$5.02

Value

$16.64

PnL

+$11.62

Record

55%

1693-1391 (3084)

NotJump<$100

Over

Invested

$10.8

Value

PnL

-$2.8

Record

55%

499-416 (915)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.62

Value

$6.6

PnL

+$1.98

Record

44%

431-541 (972)

smithagentCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.65

Value

PnL

-$0.65

Record

43%

374-496 (870)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.45

Value

PnL

+$0.55

Record

33%

585-1187 (1772)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$1,138.96

Value

$1.24

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

33%

563-1169 (1732)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.03

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$0.3

Record

46%

485-564 (1049)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (13 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.