Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Senegal leading at halftime?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $969 held · ended Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$969.23

Combined PnL

$39.07

Smart Money Entry

74.8¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$258.92

Total Shares311

Combined PnL+$26.43

No3 traders

Total Value$45.04

Total Shares105

Combined PnL+$12.65

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 65.4¢	$343.71	$344.8	+$1.09	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 65.4¢	$238.49	$207.87	-$30.62
└ No leg	Noavg 33¢	$105.22	$136.93	+$31.71
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 97¢	$376.35	$320.47	-$55.88	55% 1658-1365 (3023)
└ No leg	Noavg 31.6¢	$128.29	$174.7	+$46.41
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 97¢	$248.06	$145.77	-$102.29
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 68.5¢	$152.14	$206.62	+$54.48	32% 542-1134 (1676)
WA WagerWizardCTR<$100	Yesavg 93¢	$68.4	$41.91	-$26.49	17% 36-181 (217)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 30¢	$24.05	$34.48	+$10.42	52% 784-728 (1512)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 32¢	$6.48	$8.7	+$2.23	41% 562-807 (1369)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 85.5¢	$8.6	$5.73	-$2.87	34% 564-1116 (1680)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$3.35	$4.65	+$1.3	46% 443-515 (958)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 43¢	$1.87	$1.87	-$0	49% 1261-1293 (2554)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$343.71

Value

$344.8

PnL

+$1.09

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

Both legs:

Yes$238.4965.4¢-$30.62

No$105.2233¢+$31.71

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$376.35

Value

$320.47

PnL

-$55.88

Record

55%

1658-1365 (3023)

Both legs:

No$128.2931.6¢+$46.41

Yes$248.0697¢-$102.29

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$152.14

Value

$206.62

PnL

+$54.48

Record

32%

542-1134 (1676)

WagerWizardCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.4

Value

$41.91

PnL

-$26.49

Record

17%

36-181 (217)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$24.05

Value

$34.48

PnL

+$10.42

Record

52%

784-728 (1512)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$6.48

Value

$8.7

PnL

+$2.23

Record

41%

562-807 (1369)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.6

Value

$5.73

PnL

-$2.87

Record

34%

564-1116 (1680)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.35

Value

$4.65

PnL

+$1.3

Record

46%

443-515 (958)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$1.87

Value

$1.87

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

1261-1293 (2554)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.