Will Senegal vs. Sudan end in a draw?

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 79¢ · $760 held · ended Nov 12

Yes21¢No79¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 36%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$759.82

Combined PnL

-$43.17

Smart Money Entry

88.7¢ → 79.5¢

-10% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 14 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$390.01

Total Shares407

Combined PnL-$1.24

Yes9 traders

Total Value$61.51

Total Shares1,173

Combined PnL-$41.92

No — 36%Yes — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 89.6¢	$284.26	$308.3	+$24.05	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
└ No leg	Noavg 89.6¢	$261.57	$233	-$28.57
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 6.1¢	$22.69	$75.31	+$52.61
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 89.4¢	$350.85	$284.9	+$2.76	40% 3308-4940 (8248)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 91¢	$67.8	$62.28	-$5.52	33% 556-1141 (1697)
dips.<$100	Noavg 81.8¢	$32.7	$33.8	+$1.1	45% 544-659 (1203)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.8¢	$19.16	$21.74	+$2.59	55% 1658-1365 (3023)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.8¢	$43.68	$17.02	-$26.67	56% 4503-3474 (7977)
SM smithagent<$100	Noavg 80.8¢	$8.09	$8.14	+$0.05	42% 353-481 (834)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$19.12	$7.65	-$11.47	33% 539-1116 (1655)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$7.15	$5.74	-$1.41	46% 443-515 (958)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$4.83	$4.57	-$0.26	51% 2082-2008 (4090)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.1¢	$5.07	$2.5	-$2.57	36% 209-370 (579)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.8¢	$3	$1.57	-$0.61	47% 1666-1892 (3558)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 80¢	$8.8	$0.9	+$0.37	49% 1261-1293 (2554)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$2.09	$0.57	-$1.52	32% 542-1134 (1676)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$0.15	$0.15	-$0	53% 6207-5499 (11706)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$284.26

Value

$308.3

PnL

+$24.05

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

Both legs:

No$261.5789.6¢-$28.57

Yes$22.696.1¢+$52.61

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$350.85

Value

$284.9

PnL

+$2.76

Record

40%

3308-4940 (8248)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$67.8

Value

$62.28

PnL

-$5.52

Record

33%

556-1141 (1697)

dips.<$100

Invested

$32.7

Value

$33.8

PnL

+$1.1

Record

45%

544-659 (1203)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.16

Value

$21.74

PnL

+$2.59

Record

55%

1658-1365 (3023)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.68

Value

$17.02

PnL

-$26.67

Record

56%

4503-3474 (7977)

smithagent<$100

Invested

$8.09

Value

$8.14

PnL

+$0.05

Record

42%

353-481 (834)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.12

Value

$7.65

PnL

-$11.47

Record

33%

539-1116 (1655)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.15

Value

$5.74

PnL

-$1.41

Record

46%

443-515 (958)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.83

Value

$4.57

PnL

-$0.26

Record

51%

2082-2008 (4090)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.07

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$2.57

Record

36%

209-370 (579)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.57

PnL

-$0.61

Record

47%

1666-1892 (3558)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$8.8

Value

$0.9

PnL

+$0.37

Record

49%

1261-1293 (2554)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.09

Value

$0.57

PnL

-$1.52

Record

32%

542-1134 (1676)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

6207-5499 (11706)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 14 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.2%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.